What you will find on this page: mapping extreme weather attribution (interactive map); statistical climateology; TV meteorologists warming to climate science (video); World Weather Attribution; Climate Central; Climate Science (interactive graph & infographic); Climate Matters; WXshift (Weather Shift); weather@home (opportunity); weather presenter survey (report); key organisations; TO KEEP UP TO DATE GO TO – ARTICLES & REPORTS; weathergirl goes rogue (video) Also refer to – “The Science” & “Impacts observed & projected” for more details
Mainstreaming our changing climate – attribution
“The media, politicians and some scientists outside the area of single event attribution research still often claim that “we can’t attribute any individual event to climate change.” This may have been true in the 1990’s, but it is no longer the case…..People do not necessarily make the connections that have been shown by scientific analysis to exist between extreme weather and climate change.
If people had help connecting the dots – that is, if scientific linkages were clearly articulated and reported more often and more accurately in the media – perhaps the effect of extreme weather on peoples’ views would be greater, leading to better planning to adapt to changes, improved behavioural change, and more action on climate change.” Access full WMO article here
ACCESS Articles and reports HERE
Latest News 25 November 2022, The Cnversation: ‘This case has made legal history’: young Australians just won a human rights case against an enormous coal mine. In a historic ruling today, a Queensland court has said the massive Clive Palmer-owned Galilee Basin coal project should not go ahead because of its contribution to climate change, its environmental impacts, and because it would erode human rights. The case was mounted in 2020 by a First Nations-led group of young people aged 13 to 30 called Youth Verdict. It was the first time human rights arguments were used in a climate change case in Australia. The link between human rights and climate change is being increasingly recognised overseas. In September this year, for example, a United Nations committee decided that by failing to adequately address the climate crisis, Australia’s Coalition government violated the human rights of Torres Strait Islanders. Youth Verdict’s success today builds on this momentum. It heralds a new era for climate change cases in Australia by youth activists, who have been frustrated with the absence of meaningful federal government policy. Read more here 20 January 2020, The Guardian, Climate refugees can’t be returned home, says landmark UN human rights ruling. Experts say judgment is ‘tipping point’ that opens the door to climate crisis claims for protection. It is unlawful for governments to return people to countries where their lives might be threatened by the climate crisis, a landmark ruling by the United Nations human rights committee has found. The judgment – which is the first of its kind – represents a legal “tipping point” and a moment that “opens the doorway” to future protection claims for people whose lives and wellbeing have been threatened due to global heating, experts say. Tens of millions of people are expected to be displaced by global heating in the next decade. The judgment relates to the case of Ioane Teitiota, a man from the Pacific nation of Kiribati, which is considered one of the countries most threatened by rising sea levels. He applied for protection in New Zealand in 2013, claiming his and his family’s lives were at risk. The committee heard evidence of overcrowding on the island of South Tarawa, where Teitiota lived, saying that the population there had increased from 1,641 in 1947 to 50,000 in 2010 due to sea level rising leading to other islands becoming uninhabitable, which had led to violence and social tensions. Read more here 8 February 2019, Renew Economy, NSW coal mine ruled out due to climate change, in landmark court decision. Australia’s coal-lump caressing prime minister won’t speak its name, but a NSW judge has cited climate change in a landmark ruling on Friday, blocking plans to develop an open-cut coal mine in the state’s Hunter Valley region. Chief judge Brian Preston dismissed an appeal by Gloucester Resources, which was seeking – via the NSW Land and Environment Court – to overturn the state government’s rejection of the Rocky Hill mine, proposed for around 1km from a retirement community. The NSW Department of Planning rejected the development application of the Gloucester Resources project in October 2017, citing the impact it would have on the nearby town, its people and amenity, but not mentioning climate. In delivering his judgment, Preston – who co-founded the NSW Environmental Defenders Office – said that an open-cut coal mine in the Gloucester Valley “would be in the wrong place at the wrong time”. Read more here 10 October 2018, The Guardian, Dutch appeals court upholds landmark climate change ruling. A court in The Hague has upheld a historic legal order on the Dutch government to accelerate carbon emissions cuts, a day after the world’s climate scientists warned that time was running out to avoid dangerous warming. Appeal court judges ruled that the severity and scope of the climate crisis demanded greenhouse gas reductions of at least 25% by 2020 – measured against 1990 levels – higher than the 17% drop planned by Mark Rutte’s liberal administration. The ruling – which was greeted with whoops and cheers in the courtroom – will put wind in the sails of a raft of similar cases being planned around the world, from Norway to New Zealand and from the UK to Uganda. Marjan Minnesma, the director of the Urgenda campaign which brought the case, called on political leaders to start fighting climate change rather than court actions. She said: “The special report of the IPCC emphasises that we need to reduce emissions with much greater urgency. The Dutch government knows that as a low-lying country, we are on the frontline of climate change. Our own government agencies recently concluded that in the worst case scenario sea levels might rise by 2.5 to 3 metres by the end of the century. The court of appeal’s decision puts all governments on notice. They must act now, or they will be held to account.” Jesse Klaver, the leader of the Dutch Greens welcomed the decision as “historic news”. He told the Guardian: “Governments can no longer make promises they don’t fulfil. Countries have an obligation to protect their citizens against climate change. That makes this trial relevant for all other countries.” The Dutch government must now decide whether to appeal to the Netherlands’ supreme court, or explain how it will nearly double the entire amount of greenhouse gas emission cuts it has made since 1990 within one year. One of two newly opened coal plants would have to be shut down to comply with the original court ruling, according to a report by CE Delft in 2016. Government sources did not immediately respond to requests for comment but an appeal is thought likely. However, legal sources cautioned that its success was far from assured, given the conservative nature of two courts in The Hague which had now ruled for the Urgenda campaign, and its 886 citizen co-litigants. Read more here End Latest News Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world 15 April 2020, Carbon Brief: In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than 300 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in Alaska (pdf) and hurricanes in the Caribbean to flooding in France and heatwaves in China. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat. To access map and to read more here Using the map: The map shows 355 extreme weather events and trends across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours indicate whether the attribution study found a link to human-caused climate change (red), no link (blue) or was inconclusive (grey). International Meeting on Statistical Climatology 6 July, RealClimate: The heatwave took place and was an appropriate frame for the International meeting on statistical climatology (IMSC), which took place in Toulouse, France (June 24-28). France set a new record-high temperature 45.9°C on June 28th, beating the previous record 44.1°C from 2003 by a wide margin (1.8°C). One of the topics of this meeting was indeed heatwaves and one buzzword was “event attribution”. It is still difficult to say whether a single event is more likely as a result of climate change because of model inaccuracies when it comes to local and regional details. Weather and climate events tend to be limited geographically and involve very local processes. Climate models, however, tend to be designed to reproduce more large-scale features, and their output is not exactly the same as observed quantity. Hence, there is often a need for downscaling global climate model results in order to explain such events. A popular strategy for studying attribution of events is to run two sets of simulations: ‘factual’ (with greenhouse gas forcing) and ‘counterfactual’ (without greenhouse gas forcings) runs for the past, and then compare the results. Another question is how to “frame” the event, as different definitions of an event can give different indicators. Individual heatwaves are still difficult to attribute to global warming because soil moisture may be affected by irrigation wheras land surface changes and pollution (aerosols) can shift the temperature. These factors are tricky when it comes to modeling and thus have an effect on the precision of the analysis. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the emerging pattern of more extremes that we see is a result of the ongoing global warming. Indeed, the results presented at the IMSC provide further support for the link between climate change and extremes (see previous post absence of evidence). Read more here 18 March 2016, Pursuit (Melbourne Uni) Australia is at the forefront of research in the rapidly developing science of “Event Attribution” Whenever we experience heatwaves or cold snaps, droughts or floods, people want to know: was this due to climate change? And until about a decade ago the response was: we don’t know. We can’t link specific extreme weather events to climate change. Now things have changed. While we can’t say climate change caused an extreme event, we can estimate how much more or less likely the event has become due to human influences on the climate. This relatively new and rapidly developing area of science is called “Event Attribution” and it was the subject of a recent US National Academy of Science report . The report finds that event attribution allows us to quantify the role that humans have had on some specific extremes. But, it also challenges scientists to better evaluate our methods and communicate the results we get. Read More here ‘If Europe’s ports are underwater, Brexit may seem less important’: we’re expanding climate change coverage From 3 October The World Tonight on BBC Radio 4 and Newshour on BBC World Service will be covering climate change every week. The BBC’s been reporting for a long time that climate change is not some distant issue whose effects that will only be felt by our grandchildren. Temperature rises are affecting crops, changing the rainforests, and putting massive amounts of extra energy into the world’s weather systems. Rising temperatures are pushing malaria into parts of Africa that have never had the disease. The increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has made the oceans more acidic, so much so that we can actually observe the shells of tiny snails being dissolved by the water, threatening the entire marine food chain. While the BBC has been consistently covering all of this, and investing heavily in specialist correspondents, climate change doesn’t always get the attention it deserves. One reason for this is the way daily news programmes tend to work. We’re very good at covering the events of the day. The problem, which all editors and news organisations face, is that some of the most important things happening in the world aren’t always events. They’re often a process, a trend, a gradual change. They don’t always compete well against daily news events that feel more urgent – explosions, elections, Presidential tweets.So to make sure climate change doesn’t get crowded out, we’re committing ourselves and our programmes to covering it at least once week. However, we’re not intending to give you a weekly update on Doomsday. Mitigating climate change, and adapting to the consequences of what we’ve already done to the atmosphere, is driving huge changes in technology, business, and increasingly, politics. Our first edition will come from Norway, a country that’s grown rich on fossil fuels, but now hoping to become Europe’s renewable energy “battery.” Read more here Weather presenters in US increasingly including climate info in reports Local US weather casters have become one of the primary conduits for news on global warming. One nonprofit helped push the change. Steve LaPointe has been a television weatherman for nearly three decades, and for most of his career, he didn’t focus much on global warming. He was skeptical about the science behind it, particularly the notion that human behavior was heating the planet. But the issue wouldn’t go away. So LaPointe began to do “a lot of homework,” he said, reading research papers and consulting fellow meteorologists, who connected him with a nonprofit, Climate Central, that spreads information on climate change. LaPointe increasingly came to realize he was wrong — that the evidence that greenhouse gases are warming the Earth is “irrefutable.” Now, LaPointe routinely reports on the effects of climate change — from the escalated growth of poison ivy to a jump in the number of high-pollen days — alongside his usual seven-day nightly forecasts on CBS affiliate WRGB in Albany, New York. Many other weather presenters are following. Read more here Here are some examples World Weather Attribution is an international effort designed to sharpen and accelerate the scientific community’s ability to analyze and communicate the possible influence of climate change on extreme-weather events such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts. Recognizing society’s interest in reducing the human, economic, and environmental costs of weather-related disasters, WWA delivers timely and reliable information on how patterns of extreme weather may be affected by climate change. The program — a partnership of Climate Central, the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute (Oxford ECI), the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the University of Melbourne, and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (the Climate Centre) — was initiated in late 2014 after discussions within the scientific community concluded that the emerging science of extreme-event attribution could be operationalized. Climate Central coordinates the program and provides its secretariat. CLIMATE CENTRAL communicate the science and effects of climate change to the public and decision-makers. It is an independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. Climate Central is not an advocacy organization. We do not lobby, and we do not support any specific legislation, policy or bill. CLIMATE SCIENCE: Climate Central is a leading authority on climate science. Their science team cuts through the hype with clear-eyed analysis of climate change, delivering just the facts and findings. They dig deep into the the data to produce reports on climate trends and impacts, from state level temperature trends, to wildfires, heat waves, drought, precipitation and more. Their reports make climate change interesting and meaningful to people where they live, and provide policy-makers with objective, relevant facts on the issue. Key project areas cover: Research; Surging Seas; Attribution; States at Risk CLIMATE MATTERS: Research shows that meteorologists are trusted messengers on climate change. The majority understand that climate change is real and that the science of climate change needs to be communicated to the public. Unlike climate scientists, TV meteorologists have unparalleled access to their communities. Through Climate Matters, Climate Central provides regularly produced content on the relationship between weather and climate. Our team of data analysts, meteorologists, climate experts, graphic artists and journalists create graphics, text, animations, videos and research to aid TV weather casters in presenting science-rooted climate information in clear, concise and relevant ways. Each week, we create high-quality information and graphics for our partner meteorologists including: Since 2012, Climate Central’s program has grown to include more than 300 local TV meteorologists who routinely reach millions of viewers. The success of Climate Matters led to a partnership with Weather Company subsidiary WSI, which distributes our analyses to the majority of the nation’s TV weather forecasters. Also access the Center for Climate Change Communication (George Mason University, USA) – TV Weathercasters as Climate Educators. To get a feel for this program, watch this brief video produced by NOAA and meet WLTX (Columbia, SC) Chief Meteorologist Jim Gandy and News Director Marybeth Jacoby, the news team we partnered with to develop Climate Matters. WXShift (WEATHER SHIFT): A US site that provides weather forecasts for US cities with a local and relevant climate context.. WXshift (pronounced “weather shift”) is a collection of independent journalists, climate scientists, and meteorologists working to bring the latest in weather and climate information to the public. This site is a project of Climate Central, Sample explainer re increase in wildfires in US – and background page Weather@homeANZ – How your computer could reveal what’s driving record rain and heat in Australia and NZ The Conversation: Australians and New Zealanders can now use their computers to help scientists discover if climate change has contributed to record heatwaves, droughts and flooding across both countries. The Weather@home project, launched in Australia and New Zealand on 26 March 2014, is the latest stage of what has been dubbed “the world’s largest climate modelling experiment”, started in the UK a decade ago. Anyone with a computer and access to the internet can take part by volunteering their computer’s spare processing power to run climate and weather modelling simulations, even while continuing to use their computer normally. There are 20,000 people worldwide currently helping with similar climate prediction experiments for Europe, USA and southern Africa. Over the past decade, people in 138 countries with nearly 100,000 different computers have been involved. Access full article here. Access weather@homeANZ 2013 site to find out how you can be involved. 2017 Australian Weather Presenter Survey – Initial Findings, June 2017 A Survey of Australian TV Audiences’Views on Climate Change has also been completed with key findings being: 74.9% of respondents were interested in learning about the impacts of climate change in a weather bulletin. 84.65% of respondents indicated they would continue watching their main news program if it started presenting information on climate change. If other channels presented information on climate change when a viewer’s main channel did not, 57.43% of the audiences said they would switch their news program. Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science: The Centre is an international research consortium of five Australian universities and a suite of outstanding national and international Partner Organizations. It will build on and improve existing understanding of the modeling of regional climates to enable enhanced adaptation to and management of climate change, particularly in the Australian region. The scale of research enabled by the Centre will provide for the enhancement of climate modeling and future climate projections particularly at regional scales, minimizing Australia’s economic, social and environmental vulnerability to climate change. Access list of Partners here CAWCR has a close working relationship with the Department of the Environment. It also collaborates closely with national and international agencies. Important collaborations include: the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS), incorporating the universities of New South Wales, Melbourne and Tasmania, and Monash and the Australian National University; and the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) facilities in the form of the National Computational Infrastructure; the Integrated Marine Observing System; and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network. Climate Council: Exists to provide independent, authoritative climate change information to the Australian public. Why? Because our response to climate change should be based on the best science available. Access report page here Monash University Climate Change Communication Research Hub Its mission is to apply research strategies from media studies, journalism studies, sociology, political science and climate science to improve public understanding of climate change. Rigorous research of climate change reporting, public attitudes and the communication practices of climate scientists will identify what is needed to effectively inform all Australians of the dangers of, and solutions to, climate change. BOOK: The Weather Obsession by Lawrie Zion. An excellent overview of weather reporting in Australia, how it started and the current state of play. A quote: “…how will we process the links between the daily weather we experience and the changes that are occurring to the climate? And to what extent will media engage audiences with the urgency of adopting policy responses to the consequences of a warming world?“ Webinar and Report: Join Dr Adam Corner (Climate Outreach) and Dr Stuart Capstick (Cardiff University) as they present 9 principles for effective communications about flooding against the backdrop of climate change. The report represents a powerful statement from a diverse cross-section of experts. It is the result of a workshop which brought together key voices on communicating flood risks including 27 climate scientists, social scientists, representatives from major NGOs and national policy makers who have endorsed the report. (ED: Even though this is focused on flooding it can relate to other extreme events) Access WWA analysis reports here 26 June, Carbon Brief, Guest post: Unprecedented summer heat in Europe ‘every other year’ under 1.5C of warming. As summer gets underway in the northern hemisphere, much of Europe has already been basking in temperatures of 30C and beyond. Tens of thousands of people across Europe died in heatwaves in 2003 and 2010, for example, while the “Lucifer” heatwave last year fanned forest fires and nearly halved agricultural output in some countries. ….we have examined what impact that warming could have on European summer temperatures….. This includes the very first “event attribution” study that made a direct connection between human-caused climate change and Europe’s record hot summer of 2003. Read more here 26 February 2018, Sydney Morning Herald, ‘Really extreme’ global weather event leaves scientists aghast. Climate scientists are used to seeing the range of weather extremes stretched by global warming but few episodes appear as remarkable as this week’s unusual heat over the Arctic. Zack Labe, a researcher at the University of California at Irvine, said average daily temperatures above the northern latitude of 80 degrees have broken away from any previous recordings in the past 60 years. Read More here ALSO 28 February 2018, The Guardian; Record warmth in the Arctic this month could yet prove to be a freak occurrence, but experts warn the warming event is unprecedented Read More here Dec 2017 – January 2018: US cold outbreak – differences of opinion.…World Weather Attribution We conclude that this was an exceptional two-week cold wave in the area in the current climate. Cold outbreaks like this are getting warmer (less frequent) due to global warming, but cold waves still occur somewhere in North America almost every winter. Watch Yale Connections video on the changes to the polar vortex. 13 December 2017, American Meteorological Society, Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective. This Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of individual extreme events. This sixth edition of explaining extreme events of the previous year (2016) from a climate perspective is the first of these reports to find that some extreme events were not possible in a preindustrial climate. Read More here Related links 29 December 2017, The Conversation, 2017: the year in extreme weather. Andrew King Overall 2017 will be the warmest non-El Niño year on record globally, and over the past 12 months we have seen plenty of extreme weather, both here in Australia and across the world. 13 December 2017, World Weather Attribution, Climate Change Fingerprints Confirmed in Hurricane Harvey’s Record-Shattering Rainfall. Scientist with World Weather Attribution (WWA) find that human-caused climate change made the record rainfall that fell over Houston during Hurricane Harvey roughly three times more likely and 15 percent more intense. WWA is releasing the findings of its new analysis regarding the role of human-induced climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s devastating rains that is published in the peer-reviewed journal, Environmental Research Letters (ERL). The findings are being released jointly with the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in a joint press release and at a press conference on Wednesday, December 13 at 2:30 p.m. CT at the annual AGU Fall Meeting in New Orleans. The paper can be found on our website and in Environmental Research Letters. August 29, 2017 Hurricane Harvey: lawyers warn of climate lawsuits over damages Climate Home, As science tying disasters to climate change becomes increasingly accurate, victims could seek legal redress for failure to plan for predictable events August 28, 2017 Link between Hurricane Harvey and climate change is unclear. Climate Home, Reports the devastating storm was made worse by humanity’s carbon emissions fail to grasp climate change is not just about warming. The unpredictability of hurricanes makes it hard to say for sure whether climate change is making them worse. But we do know that sea-level rise and increased evaporation will worsen the impacts. August 14, 2017 Climate warms the Earth, not chance, Climate News Network Each of the last three years has seen record temperatures worldwide, further evidence that climate warms the Earth, not mere chance. Each has been named the warmest year since records began. August 9, 2017 Southeast Europe swelters through another heatwave with a human fingerprint Andrew King, University of Melbourne Parts of Europe are having a devastatingly hot summer. Already we’ve seen heat records topple in western Europe in June, and now a heatwave nicknamed “Lucifer” is bringing stifling conditions to areas… August 4, 2017 Climate change to blame for Australia’s July heat Andrew King, University of Melbourne Winter hasn’t felt too wintry yet in much of Australia. Most of us have have had more sunshine, higher temperatures, and less rainfall than is normal for the time of year. In fact, Australia just had its… August 2, 2017 ‘Just do the weather’: does it matter if TV weather presenters aren’t experts? Lawrie Zion, La Trobe University ….Weather presenters have long been a crucial component of any television news team, and are promoted as such. For many in the audience, they’ve also been the main conduit of weather information. July 29, 2017 Better than sex? Why we are so obsessed with the weather, Lawrie Zion, La Trobe University …According to Google, “sex” was a much more popular search term than “weather’ in 2004. But by the beginning of 2017, “weather” outstripped “sex” by a ratio of four to one – a trend replicated in several other western countries. July 6, 2017 Australia’s dry June is a sign of what’s to come Andrew King, University of Melbourne This June was the seventh-warmest and second-driest on record for Australia. Parts of the southwest and southeast saw record dry conditions as frontal systems passed further south than normal and high… June 19, 2017 Are heatwaves ‘worsening’ and have ‘hot days’ doubled in Australia in the last 50 years? Andrew King, University of Melbourne Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie told Q&A that heatwaves were ‘worsening’ in Australia and ‘hot days’ had doubled in the last 50 years. Let’s take a look at the evidence. June 8, 2017 What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter? Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Ben Henley, University of Melbourne, and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading The Paris climate agreement aims to keep restrict global warming to within 2℃ above ‘pre-industrial levels’. But what does that mean, exactly? June 7, 2017 Winter warmth is in the forecast (but don’t celebrate yet) Andrew King, University of Melbourne Australia is looking at another mild winter – but while it sounds pleasant, it can increase bushfire risk and worsen drought. Winter heatwaves are actually (enjoyable) extreme weather events. May 16, 2017 Why 2℃ of global warming is much worse for Australia than 1.5℃ Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Ben Henley, University of Melbourne, and David Karoly, University of Melbourne Global warming of 2℃, the higher of the two Paris targets, would see current record-breaking temperatures become the norm in the future, potentially bringing heatwaves to both land and sea. May 9, 2017 Global warming could accelerate towards 1.5℃ if the Pacific gets cranky Ben Henley, University of Melbourne and Andrew King, University of Melbourne If the Pacific Ocean enters an ‘El Tio’ phase, it could speed the world towards 1.5 degrees of global warming, one of the crucial benchmarks of the Paris Climate Agreement. March 2, 2017 Climate change’s signature was writ large on Australia’s crazy summer of 2017 Andrew King, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ; Matthew Hale, UNSW, and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW New South Wales has just had its hottest summer on record – an event that was made 50 times more likely by humans’ impact on the climate. February 16, 2017 Climate change doubled the likelihood of the New South Wales heatwave Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW; Andrew King, University of Melbourne, and Matthew Hale, UNSW Heat records have tumbled across New South Wales as the state suffered through the weekend’s heatwave. A new analysis shows that climate change made this kind of event much less of a rarity. February 6, 2017 Meet El Niño’s cranky uncle that could send global warming into hyperdrive Ben Henley, University of Melbourne; Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Chris Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; Jaci Brown, CSIRO, and Mandy Freund, University of Melbourne We’re due to cop a hiding from the Pacific Ocean, but we don’t know when. January 11, 2017 Getting a scientific message across means taking human nature into account December 22, 2016 Yes, the Arctic’s freakishly warm winter is due to humans’ climate influence Andrew King, University of Melbourne The end of 2016 has brought balmy Arctic temperatures and record low ice extent for the time of year. It’s a freak event even by modern standards, and climate models point the finger firmly at humans. December 16, 2016 Climate change played a role in Australia’s hottest October and Tasmania’s big dry in 2015 Pandora Hope, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Guomin Wang, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Julie Arblaster, Monash University, and Michael Grose, CSIRO October 2015 was the hottest on record for that month, and Tasmania had its driest ever spring. December 16, 2016 Infographic: climate change and 2015’s year of wild weather Andrew King, University of Melbourne Across the globe, extreme heat events are linked with climate change, although El Niño provided a boost in 2015 leading to more records being broken. October 21, 2016 September brought the world’s record-breaking hot streak to an end – but don’t chill out Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ben Henley, University of Melbourne Since April 2015, each month has been the hottest on record and it’s the longest hot streak on record. September 29, 2016 What caused South Australia’s state-wide blackout? Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Dylan McConnell, University of Melbourne; Hugh Saddler, Australian National University; Nicky Ison, University of Technology Sydney, and Roger Dargaville, University of Melbourne South Australia is recovering from a state-wide blackout, and fingers are pointing at the state’s renewable energy industry and climate change. September 15, 2016 Inside Climate News. Hesitance to Link Some Weather Events to Climate Change ‘No Longer Appropriate’ August 24, 2016 Keeping global warming to 1.5C, not 2C, will make a crucial difference to Australia, report says James Whitmore, The Conversation and Michael Hopkin, The Conversation A new report published by the Climate Institute says Australia could avoid lengthy heatwaves and help save the Great Barrier Reef by meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C global warming goal. August 15, 2016 We have almost certainly blown the 1.5-degree global warming target Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ben Henley, University of Melbourne Limiting global warming to 1.5℃ already looks out of reach, so where do we go from here? August 4, 2016 State of the Climate 2015: global warming and El Niño sent records tumbling Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW 2015 was the world’s hottest year on record. The US State of the Climate report has rounded up the litany of temperature and other records that were broken all over the globe. June 1, 2016 Australia simmers through hottest autumn on record Andrew King, University of Melbourne Autumn 2016 was Australia’s hottest, beating the previous record set in 2005. May 28, 2016 What is going on with India’s weather? Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW; Andrew King, University of Melbourne, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute The city of Phalodi has set a temperature record for India, hitting 51℃. Until now, India’s smog problem has curbed extreme temperatures. But that could be about to change. May 18, 2016 2016 is likely to be the world’s hottest year: here’s why Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading Another month, another broken temperature record. Scientists are already confident 2016 will be the hottest year ever, a record only set in 2015. April 29, 2016 Great Barrier Reef bleaching would be almost impossible without climate change Andrew King, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, The University of Queensland, and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW This summer’s record-breaking coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef was made 175 times more likely thanks to climate change. March 8, 2016 We traced the human fingerprint on record-breaking temperatures back to the 1930s Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne Record-breaking years have been almost impossible without human-caused climate change. 2016 – Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change 27 November 2015 ECOS Climate change and extreme weather: understanding the link November 6, 2015 A year of records: the human role in 2014’s wild weather Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne; Andrew King, University of Melbourne, and David Karoly, University of Melbourne 2014 saw heatwaves of all kinds and other wild weather. Research can now explain that climate change made these events much more likely. October 29, 2015 It’s been Australia’s hottest ever October, and that’s no coincidence David Karoly, University of Melbourne and Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne This has been Australia’s hottest October on record. And the record-breaking temperatures are at least six times more likely thanks to human-induced global warming. September 24, 2015 Ground zero for climate change: the tropics were first to feel the definite effects in the 1960s Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading Global warming is, by definition, experienced worldwide. But a new study shows that the tropics were the first places on earth where the human effect on climate outstripped normal climate variations. May 1, 2015 England’s set to swelter through a rash of record hot years Andrew King, University of Melbourne An analysis of the world’s longest-running temperature record suggests that England is many times more likely to experience more record-breaking hot years like 2014 than it was a century ago. April 28, 2015 Explainer: was the Sydney storm ‘once-in-a-century’? Kate R Saunders, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne, and Peter Taylor, University of Melbourne The recent wild weather that lashed New South Wales has been described as ‘once-in-a-century’. But how often does it really happen? December 17, 2014 Scorching 2014 sees records tumble in 19 European countries Andrew King, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne, and Sophie Lewis, Australian National University It’s clear: 2014 has been a scorcher. As well as probably being the hottest year on record globally, regional and local climate records have tumbled too. Australia recently had its hottest spring on record… December 5, 2014 Hot 2014 closes in on top spot in world temperature rankings Andrew King, University of Melbourne and David Karoly, University of Melbourne As representatives from around the world sit down in Lima to discuss how to tackle the ever-growing problem of climate change, it is becoming increasingly likely that 2014 will be the hottest year on record… December 4, 2014 Sound familiar? Spring 2014 was Australia’s hottest on record, again Andrew King, University of Melbourne This time last year, it was announced that Australia had experienced its hottest spring on record. Well, guess what? It’s happened again. The spring of 2014 was hotter still and is the new record-holder… March 26, 2014 How your computer could reveal what’s driving record rain and heat in Australia and NZ Liz Minchin, The Conversation and Katherine Smyrk, The Conversation Australians and New Zealanders can now use their computers to help scientists discover if climate change has contributed… January 6, 2014 Australia’s hottest year was no freak event: humans caused it Sophie Lewis, University of Melbourne and David Karoly, University of Melbourne The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that 2013 was the hottest year in Australia since records began in 1910. Unusual heat was a persistent feature throughout the year. For the continent as a whole… October 1, 2013 Sweaty September smashes records, with more heat to come James Whitmore, The Conversation Australia has experienced its hottest September on record, as well as rewriting the records for the hottest 12-month period… September 6, 2013 The blame for rain is mainly done in vain Andrew King, UNSW; David Karoly, University of Melbourne, and Lisa Alexander, UNSW As a climate scientist, it seems for every extreme event – be it the recent hottest 12 months on record for Australia or the floods and heavy rains of 2011 and 2012 – one question is inevitably asked… September 2, 2013 Hottest 12-month period confirmed – so what role did humans play? David Karoly, University of Melbourne and Sophie Lewis, University of Melbourne It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years. Temperatures averaged across Australia between September 2012 and August 2013 were hotter than any year… June 27, 2013 The human role in our ‘angry’ hot summer Sophie Lewis, University of Melbourne and David Karoly, University of Melbourne Today we released a study that shows quantitatively that anthropogenic climate change substantially increased the likelihood of the record-breaking Australian summer of 2013. Indeed, human influences on… May 27, 2013 Uncertainty no excuse for procrastinating on climate change Roger Bodman, Victoria University and David Karoly, University of Melbourne Today we released research which reduces the range of uncertainty in future global warming. It does not alter the fact we will never be certain about how, exactly, the climate will change. We always have…
6 July 2017, Carbon Brief, Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world. In the early 2000s, a new field of climate science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination because of the power it has to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with our own tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than 140 studies looking at weather events around the world, from Typhoon Haiyan to the California drought. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat. Carbon Brief’s analysis suggests 63% of all extreme weather events studied to date were made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. Heatwaves account for nearly half of such events (46%), droughts make up 21% and heavy rainfall or floods account for 14%. To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped – to the best of our knowledge – every extreme event attribution study published in a peer-reviewed journal. Our aim is to update the map periodically, as new studies are published, so that it serves as a real-time tracker for the evolving field of “extreme event attribution”. Using the map The map above shows 144 extreme weather events across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours tell you whether or not the attribution study found climate change had played a role in that event (see the key on the right-hand side). Read More hereClimate Central
Climate Science
EXAMPLE – CLIMATE SCIENCE: The WWA team and colleagues from the University of New South Wales conducted a rapid attribution analysis to see how climate change factored into the exceptionally warm summer (December to February) of 2016-2017. The team also looked at the hottest three-day average February temperatures in Canberra and Sydney. Access full article here
When will weather reporting with a climate change context become the norm for Australia??
Climate Matters
And again…..WXshift (weather shift)
A starting point…..
This report documents the initial findings of the first Australian weather presenters survey. This study was conducted by the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub – a newly established esearch grouping at Monash University. The survey sought to understand the collective attitudes of the Australian weather presenting community in relation to climate change. Specifically, it aimed to gauge their interest in the possibility of including climate information in their weather presentations. The survey also strove to understand the level of engagement that weather presenters currently have with climate change in both their personal and professional lives. Access report hereKey research organisations and links to their sites & reports
The Australian Meteorological Society and the American Meteorological Society, are delighted to announce the Joint 25th AMOS National Conference and 12th International Conference for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, AMOS-ICSHMO 2018, to be held at UNSW Sydney from 5 to 9 February 2018……..We will also be running a number of workshops bringing together early career researchers with industry groups, training educators and scientists how to better communicate their science, and bringing together television weather forecasters to discusses the incorporation of climate change information into broadcasts.
Bureau of Meteorology: The Bureau of Meteorology operates under the authority of the Meteorology Act 1955 and the Water Act 2007 which provide the legal basis for its activities, while its operation is continually assessed in accordance with the national need for climatic records, water information, scientific understanding of Australian weather and climate and effective service provision to the Australian community. Access BOM page on variability and climate trends here
Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research CAWCR is a partnership between Australia’s leading atmosphere and ocean research agencies: the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. CAWCR research is focused on Earth-system science, delivering national benefit in areas such as weather prediction, hazard prediction and warnings, ocean prediction, climate variability and climate change, responses to weather- and climate-related health hazards, water supply and management, and adaptation to climate impacts. CAWCR research outputs may be delivered as new or improved Bureau of Meteorology services, or to Government and other stakeholders in the form of written advice or new technologies. Products of our research include publications in the scientific literature, modelling and observational technologies, reports to clients, collaborations, and conferences.
Climate Change in Australia: Climate Change in Australia (or CCIA) is a comprehensive website and suite of reports providing information about climate change projections for Australia. 
The NCCARF Adaptation Library holds and provides links to research reports and information to help support decision makers throughout Australia as they prepare for and manage the risks of climate change and sea-level rise. CoastAdapt is an online coastal climate risk management framework developed by NCCARF to support adaptation to coastal climate change and sea-level rise.
Weather@homeANZ where anyone with a computer and access to the internet can take part by volunteering their computer’s spare processing power to run climate and weather modelling simulations, even while continuing to use their computer normally.Help to answer the question how the odds of getting an extremely hot summer, or extremely severe drought, have changed due to man-made climate change: have past greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of pollution “loaded the weather dice” towards (or perhaps even away from) events of this nature?Articles & Reports
