31 October 2016, The Conversation, Unnatural disasters: how we can spot climate’s role in specific extreme events. These days, after an extreme weather event like a cyclone, bushfire, or major storm, it’s common to find people asking: was it climate change? We also often hear people saying it is impossible to attribute any single weather event to climate change, as former prime minister Tony Abbott and the then environment minister Greg Hunt said after the bushfires in New South Wales in 2013. While this may have been true in the 1990s, the science of attributing individual extreme events to global warming has advanced significantly since then. It is now possible to link aspects of extreme events to climate change. However, as I describe in an article co-written by Susan Hassol, Simon Torok and Patrick Luganda and published today in the World Meteorologcal Organization’s Bulletin, how we communicate these findings has not kept pace with the rapidly evolving science. As a result, there is widespread confusion about the links between climate change and extreme weather. Evolving science The science of attributing individual extreme weather events to climate change dates back to 2003, when a discussion article in Nature raised the question of liability for damages from extreme events. The idea was that if you could attribute a specific event to rising greenhouse gas emissions, you could potentially hold someone to account. This was soon followed by a 2004 study of the 2003 European heatwave, which caused more than 35,000 deaths. This analysis found that climate change had more than doubled the risk of such extreme heat. Read More here
Tag Archives: Extreme Events
26 October 2016, Independent, Climate change wars are coming and building walls won’t help, top general warns. The effects of global warming ‘are becoming so severe they hold tremendous conflict potential’ in some areas and the world should prepare for millions of refugees. Climate change is threatening to force millions of people to become refugees and spark major wars that could “completely destabilise” the world, a leading general has warned. And countries which attempted to deal with the coming crisis by resorting to “narrow nationalistic instincts” – for example, by building walls to keep out refugees – will only make the problem worse, according to Major General Munir Muniruzzaman, chairman of the Global Military Advisory Council On Climate Change (GMACCC). He added that, while countries had talked a lot about the problems posed by global warming and how to address them, there did not seem to be “much action” on the ground. The GMACCC was set up in 2009 to investigate the security implications of climate change and its members include serving and retired military officers from around the world, such as the UK’s Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti and Brigadier General Stephen Cheney, a former US Marine. Speaking ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Marrakesh next month, General Muniruzzaman said it was time to make good on the promises made at last year’s historic meeting in Paris with global warming already contributing to flooding and droughts, threatening financial security and affecting people’s health. Read More here
11 October 2016, Climate News Network, Climate impacts double US forest fires. New study finds that man-made global warming is the root cause of a relentless increase in forest fires in the US. Climate change has already doubled the number of forest fires in the western US since the 1980s − and it is a trend that will continue to increase, according to new research. The study says the rise in temperatures and aridity sucks the moisture out of the plants, trees, dead vegetation on the ground and the soil, and is part of a worldwide trend of ever-increasing wildfires. Scientists from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory pin the blame firmly on human-induced climate change − a significant statement in a country where many Republican supporters still refuse to accept that the burning of fossil fuels is causing global warming. There has been a lively debate about the issue, and the scientists make clear in research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science that they wanted the settle the argument. Bigger fire years “No matter how hard we try, the fires are going to keep getting bigger, and the reason is really clear,” says the study’s co-author Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at the Earth Observatory. “Climate is really running the show in terms of what burns. We should be getting ready for bigger fire years than those familiar to previous generations.” Forest fires in the US west began increasing in the 1980s − as measured by area burned, the number of large fires, and length of the fire season. The increases have continued, and, while there are a number of contributing factors, the study concludes that at least 55% of the increase is due to man-made climate change. “A lot of people are throwing around the words climate change and fire − specifically, fire chiefs and the governor of California last year started calling this the ‘new normal’,” says the study’s lead author, John Abatzoglou, associate professor of geography at the University of Idaho. “We wanted to put some numbers on it.” Read More here
11 October 2016, The Conversation, Hurricane Matthew is just the latest unnatural disaster to strike Haiti. At least 1,000 people were killed when Hurricane Matthew battered the Tiburon peninsula in Haiti last week, destroying houses and displacing tens of thousands.A humanitarian crisis is now unfolding for the survivors, with the Pan American Health Organization warning of a likely cholera surge in the country due to severely damaged water supply and sanitation systems. Several other Caribbean island states have been affected, including the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Cuba, as well as the United States. In 2011, one of us (Jason) led a team to Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince to contribute to the reconstruction effort after the devastating 2010 earthquake. The team worked particularly on the provision of housing. In all interactions, the team encountered a local community that was honourable, industrious and kind. This perception is confirmed by those who have spent time on the ground after Hurricane Matthew. But, as is common in the media and institutional narrative following disasters, prejudices and preconceptions abound. Following the earthquake, the Haitians were portrayed as weak, dependent, corrupt and lawless victims. The international community intervened, amid a global outpouring of grief, support and solidarity. Five years later, destruction and suffering in Haiti is again making headlines. Why is history repeating itself? Read More here