8 November 2016, The Conversation, Natural disasters are affecting some of Australia’s most disadvantaged communities. Bushfires have been the most common natural disaster in New South Wales over the past decade, according to our study published today in Nature’s Scientific Reports. Our study, the first of its kind, looked at disaster declarations in local government areas (LGAs). We found 207 disasters affected the state between 2004 and 2014. Bushfires were the most common, responsible for 108 disaster declarations, followed by storms (55) and floods (44). By looking at where disasters were declared, we found a “hotspot” in northern New South Wales, which includes some of the state’s most disadvantaged communities. This suggests that to help communities prepare for disasters, we need to address underlying causes of disadvantage. There’s nothing natural about a disaster Disasters are a regular part of life for communities across the globe. So far in 2016, disasters have cost US$71 billion and claimed some 6,000 lives. Globally, the number and cost of disasters is rising. Australia has a long history of natural disasters, from catastrophic bushfires to flooding rains. Many people are asking whether such disasters are becoming more frequent, and what we can do to better prevent and prepare for them. Despite the way we talk about them, fires, floods and storms are not inherently natural disasters. Though they may threaten social systems or the environment, they are more accurately classified as natural hazards. A disaster occurs when a natural hazard overwhelms a social system’s capacity to cope and respond. Instead, disasters require many agencies and a coordinated response. Many factors such as vulnerability, resilience and population density influence a how a community copes with hazards.Read More here
Tag Archives: Bushfire
31 October 2016, The Conversation, Unnatural disasters: how we can spot climate’s role in specific extreme events. These days, after an extreme weather event like a cyclone, bushfire, or major storm, it’s common to find people asking: was it climate change? We also often hear people saying it is impossible to attribute any single weather event to climate change, as former prime minister Tony Abbott and the then environment minister Greg Hunt said after the bushfires in New South Wales in 2013. While this may have been true in the 1990s, the science of attributing individual extreme events to global warming has advanced significantly since then. It is now possible to link aspects of extreme events to climate change. However, as I describe in an article co-written by Susan Hassol, Simon Torok and Patrick Luganda and published today in the World Meteorologcal Organization’s Bulletin, how we communicate these findings has not kept pace with the rapidly evolving science. As a result, there is widespread confusion about the links between climate change and extreme weather. Evolving science The science of attributing individual extreme weather events to climate change dates back to 2003, when a discussion article in Nature raised the question of liability for damages from extreme events. The idea was that if you could attribute a specific event to rising greenhouse gas emissions, you could potentially hold someone to account. This was soon followed by a 2004 study of the 2003 European heatwave, which caused more than 35,000 deaths. This analysis found that climate change had more than doubled the risk of such extreme heat. Read More here
11 October 2016, Climate News Network, Climate impacts double US forest fires. New study finds that man-made global warming is the root cause of a relentless increase in forest fires in the US. Climate change has already doubled the number of forest fires in the western US since the 1980s − and it is a trend that will continue to increase, according to new research. The study says the rise in temperatures and aridity sucks the moisture out of the plants, trees, dead vegetation on the ground and the soil, and is part of a worldwide trend of ever-increasing wildfires. Scientists from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory pin the blame firmly on human-induced climate change − a significant statement in a country where many Republican supporters still refuse to accept that the burning of fossil fuels is causing global warming. There has been a lively debate about the issue, and the scientists make clear in research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science that they wanted the settle the argument. Bigger fire years “No matter how hard we try, the fires are going to keep getting bigger, and the reason is really clear,” says the study’s co-author Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at the Earth Observatory. “Climate is really running the show in terms of what burns. We should be getting ready for bigger fire years than those familiar to previous generations.” Forest fires in the US west began increasing in the 1980s − as measured by area burned, the number of large fires, and length of the fire season. The increases have continued, and, while there are a number of contributing factors, the study concludes that at least 55% of the increase is due to man-made climate change. “A lot of people are throwing around the words climate change and fire − specifically, fire chiefs and the governor of California last year started calling this the ‘new normal’,” says the study’s lead author, John Abatzoglou, associate professor of geography at the University of Idaho. “We wanted to put some numbers on it.” Read More here
15 September 2016, The Conversation, After Tasmania’s year of disasters, bushfire tops the state’s growing list of natural hazards. Tasmania has had a damaging year, with the island state hit by a series of bushfires and floods. Now a comprehensive new assessment of Tasmania’s exposure to natural disasters shows that bushfire remains the number one hazard to people and property, while also highlighting a range of new threats. These include coastal flooding, pandemic influenza and – despite being Australia’s most southerly state – an increasing likelihood of heatwaves. The 2016 Tasmanian State Natural Disaster Risk Assessment (TSNDRA)aims to provide emergency services with key information to help prepare for and reduce the impact of disasters. It is the first state-level assessment in Australia that adheres to the recently updated National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines. All states and territories are required to produce their own risk assessments by June 2017. Given Tasmania’s unprecedented recent run of natural disasters, it is fitting that it should be the first state to publish a comprehensive roundup of the risks. The assessment of natural disaster risk took place over 12 months from March 2015. It involved a series of workshops and online surveys of experts in each hazard area. For the first time, the process was led not by state government agencies, but by a close collaboration between researchers at the University of Tasmania, RMIT University and the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, together with members of the State Emergency Service and related agencies, and other stakeholders including the Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Red Cross and Engineers Australia. The process aimed to allow a range of different voices to inform the identification of priority risks for Tasmania. Read more here