What you will find on this page: how climate change shapes food insecurity (video); Weather Alert: 4 Corners program (video); About time we got over the “yuk” factor for recycled water (video); Farmers for Climate Action (video); Cool Farm Tool online calulator; Australia’s future food security; WRI Challenge; UNEP summary; BOM water sites: Australia’s water challenge; climate drivers; understanding ENSO (video); groundwater use; water futures; water trading; agriculture; food & water crisis; localising food production; complex food distribution; land use – agriculture & forestry; latest news; also refer to page “impacts observed & projected” as the issues are closely related
Latest News 9 January 2024, NOAA Climate.GOV: What’s in a number? The meaning of the 1.5-C climate threshold. Numbers and the meanings we attach to them can be weird. A number can mean a lot or very little depending on how it is being used, and who is using it. To a Taylor Swift fan, 13 is a lucky number. To many in Western cultures, it is a day of bad luck when falling on a Friday. To others, 13 is just the number that comes after 12. When it comes to climate science and policy, one of our “13s” is the 1.5°C climate threshold, shorthand for global average surface warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. That’s the level of warming that the countries who signed the Paris Agreement have agreed to try to stay below. But what does pre-industrial mean? How do we know when we’ve passed 1.5°C? And what happens if we do? When you read or hear climate numbers, they are often being compared to average. The September 2023 NOAA global surface temperatures, for instance, were 1.44 degrees Celsius above average. That average represents a defined period of time. In this case, September was 1.44°C warmer than the average September of the twentieth century. For the 1.5°C climate threshold, the “average” time range is defined as the “pre-industrial period”, or the period of time before the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human-emissions began to significantly influence global temperatures. Sounds a bit vague, right? What years make up this “pre-industrial period?” It depends. Most history books define the dates of the Industrial Revolution as between the mid-1700s and mid-1800s, but scientific definitions of pre-industrial typically cover some range of decades between 1850 and 1900. Why? Because that’s the earliest time period with widespread, consistent surface temperature records. Different research groups use different parts of the broader time range. For NOAA data, we currently define pre-industrial as 1850-1900. (Footnote 1) While there can be differences in what counts as “pre-industrial”, it’s important to remember that industrial versus pre-industrial is really about the human signature on our climate and how scientists can distinguish that from natural variability going back thousands of years. (Footnote 2) Read more here New Scientist, 6 December 2023: Major climate tipping points could be triggered within a decade. The climate has warmed so much that we are already at risk of triggering five global “tipping points” that would have catastrophic effects worldwide and couldn’t be reversed easily if at all, according to a major report. As the world goes past 1.5°C of warming, it will be increasingly likely that we will cross these tipping points, and there will be a growing risk of this resulting in others as well. “Triggering one tipping point could trigger another in a kind of dangerous domino effect,” says Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter in the UK, the report’s lead author. “But also these tipping points in the Earth system could, in turn, trigger damaging tipping points in societies, things like food security crises, mass displacement and conflicts. Stopping these threats is possible, but it’s going to require urgent global action.” A tipping point is where a small alteration in a system can cause abrupt changes that are hard to reverse or are irreversible, because of amplifying feedback processes. Lenton says this is like leaning back on a chair: when it is near the balance point, just a small nudge can make the chair fall over. The report, put together by more than 200 researchers worldwide, brings together all the existing studies on tipping points and also includes research that is about to be published. According to the report, the five major tipping points we are near to crossing are: the loss of the Greenland ice sheet, the demise of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the die-off of tropical coral reefs, the abrupt thaw of large areas of Arctic permafrost and the slowing of an ocean current known as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. The subpolar gyre is a circular current south of Greenland where salty water cools and sinks. It is linked to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but there is growing evidence that the current could slow or stop separately from and sooner than the AMOC, says David Armstrong McKay, also at the University of Exeter. Read more here The conversation, 5 December 2023: Fossil CO₂ emissions hit record high yet again in 2023. Global emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂), in yet another year of growth, will increase by 1.1% in 2023. These emissions will hit a record 36.8 billion tonnes. That’s the finding of the Global Carbon Project’s 18th annual report card on the state of the global carbon budget, which we released today. Fossil CO₂ includes emissions from the combustion and use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and cement production. Adding CO₂ emissions and removals from land-use change, such as deforestation and reforestation, human activities are projected to emit 40.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2023. The world’s vegetation and oceans continue to remove about half of all CO₂ emissions. The rest builds up in the atmosphere and is causing increasing warming of the planet. At current emission levels, the remaining carbon budget for a one-in-two chance to limit warming to 1.5°C will likely be exceeded in seven years, and in 15 years for 1.7°C. The need to cut emissions has never been so urgent. Read more here 29 November 2023, RealClimate: Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28. It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.” That has indeed happened as predicted, it has been confirmed by a zillion studies and has been scientific consensus for decades. Yet, when the next global climate summit is coming up (it’s starting tomorrow), we don’t only learn that the host, United Arab Emirates, intends to use the event for new oil deals. We also see more attempts to cast doubt that global warming is caused by emissions from burning oil, gas and coal – as so often before these summits. This time making the rounds is a “discussion paper” published by Statistics Norway. It is noteworthy not because it contains anything new (it doesn’t), but because despite clearly violating the established standards of good scientific practice, it was published by a government agency. That’s why it is having an impact in non-scientific quarters including the corporate world, and it has even been cited in a submission to proceedings of the German parliament. The flood of fallacies or deceptions begins with the paper’s title: “To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions?” But the effect of greenhouse gases is not even investigated in the paper – which suggests the title is politically motivated. And the paper revolves around ignoring past studies and basic physics, using dubious sources, and the glaring blunder of arguing that warming at any individual weather station might be caused by random weather variations, without ever wondering how it is possible that these supposed random variations go in the same direction all over the planet: in the direction of warming. The paper provides a good opportunity to illustrate how climate science obfuscation works, and to remind readers how we actually know for sure that greenhouse gas emissions are indeed responsible for modern global warming. Read more here End Latest News Change in water availability compared with average 1961 – 1990 Interactive: How climate change shapes food insecurity across the world 1 December 2015, Carbon Brief: Rising temperatures and more extreme weather are set to increase the pressure on food supplies around the world, risking shortages in the least-developed and developing countries and potentially pushing millions of people into deeper hunger and malnutrition. This is the message from the Met Office and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), who have joined forces to launch a new interactive map at the COP21 conference underway in Paris. The graphic lets you see where in the world is already vulnerable to food ‘shocks’, and how the picture changes depending on how much action, if any, we take to reduce our emissions. Click on image to open video Drinking recycled water (or as this video calls it, poop water) isn’t the most appealing notion for many people. But it’s becoming increasingly necessary––this video digs into some of the ways people have come to accept it. Source: Holly Kaw! Do we drink recycled water in Australia? Depending on where you live, or where you’ve travelled, there’s a chance you’ve already drunk recycled water. Water recycling happens in other regions of Australia but the water is generally directed exclusively for irrigation or industrial use. Recycled water overseas FCA is an alliance of farmers and leaders in agriculture who are working with their peers, the wider sector and decision-makers to make sure Australia takes the actions necessary to address damage to our climate. FCA is determined to see farmers and agriculture get the support and investment it needs to adapt to a changing climate, as well as be part of the solution. Members are spread far and wide across the country: from the tropical north of Queensland to Tasmania, and from the wine growing regions of Western Australia right across to the sheep and cropping farms of New South Wales. Farmers for Climate Action is an associate member of the National Farmers Federation, and a member of the Climate Action Network Australia (CANA). We work closely with stakeholders within the agricultural and climate realms. Learn more about Farmers for Climate Action here 26 December 2016, Climate News Network. An internet tool is now available that helps to quantify and control farms’ greenhouse emissions released during the crop production cycle. It’s called the Cool Farm Tool (CFT) – an easy-to-use online calculator that helps farmers monitor their emissions of greenhouse gases. Agriculture accounts for about 15% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, though when fertiliser manufacture and use and the overall food processing sector are included in calculations, that figure is considerably higher. The land can also act as a vital carbon sink, soaking up or sequestering vast amounts of carbon: when soils are disturbed the carbon is released, adding to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The CFT was initially developed by researchers at the University of Aberdeen in the UK in partnership with Unilever and the Sustainable Food Lab. Now managed by a group including academics and food manufacturers called the Cool Farm Alliance, the CFT is free for farmers to download. Various details, including the crops being planted, soil types and pH levels (the relative acidity or alkalinity of the land), are entered into a series of boxes. Moisture levels, amounts and types of fertiliser used and general management details are also entered, along with information on quantities of diesel and electricity used in the cultivation and storage of crops and the fuel needed to transport goods on and off the farm. Read More here The Cool Farm Tool covers virtually all crops and livestock globally. One exception is for crops grown in non-soil media (e.g. greenhouses or hydroponically), but proxies can be used. The Tool is undergoing an update for livestock including new emission factors for feed, and improvements to the user interface. A project is also underway to improve ease of use and applicability of the Cool Farm Tool for many perennial and multi-year crops (coffee, tea, orchard crops, berries). Results from both projects are due in 2017. Access Tool here Feeding a Hungry Nation: Climate change, food and farming in Australia Climate change is affecting the quality and seasonal availability of many foods in Australia. Australia is extremely vulnerable to disruptions in food supply through extreme weather events. Climate change is the most challenging threat to food and water security between now and 2050 Water risks like stress and variable supply threaten everything from agriculture to industry to energy production. Already, 69 countries and one-quarter of the world’s cropland face high water stress. These challenges will likely become more severe as competition for water increases and climate change shifts precipitation patterns. The World Economic Forum identified global water crises as one of the top five global risks for businesses. Without tools to evaluate these risks and inform management plans, businesses’ bottom lines will suffer. Read More here UNEP: The real concern for the future, in the context of changing patterns of rainfall, is the decrease of run-off water which may put at risk large areas of arable land. The map shows how seriously this issue must be taken, while the forecast indicates that some of the richest arable regions (Europe, United States, parts of Brazil, southern Africa) are threatened with a significant reduction of run-off water, resulting in a lack of water for rain-fed agriculture and thus putting millions at risks. The accelerating changes in our global climate will undoubtedly cause major changes in the patterns of water cycle and geographical distribution, in the near future. Some regions will receive less precipitation, some more, and this will significantly affect agricultural activity. While some regions will see a reduction in arable land, others will have more suitable land for agriculture. It’s likely that certain types of agriculture will migrate and traditional areas for crops will change. In other words, climate change will alter the geography of traditional crop areas, which may impact on the world’s capacity to provide enough food for all. Since the 1990s, the scientific community has been warning about the rapidly changing climate, endeavouring to convince people to take urgent measures to mitigate the changes. These multiple warnings have been ignored until very recently, but the issue is now a priority with many international organizations. However, all reliable climate scenarios run by the IPCC and published in the fourth assessment reports show the following results: In other words, ongoing climate change will mean that the water supply for human communities will become more and more uncertain. The IPCC has stated that between 2000 and 2005 in the northern hemisphere, climate change accelerated faster than predicted, with the consequence that the water cycle could change in an unpredictable way, leading to the possibility of increases in extreme weather. The fear is that with all these changes, even if the quantity of water in the world does not change, the level of accessibility of the theoretically available water may significantly change. Source: UNEP Future Directions International highlights Australia’s challenge BOM water information and update sites 3 August 2015, The Conversation, The role of water in Australia’s uncertain future: If you live in an Australian city, there’s a good chance that your water comes from surface water such as streams, rivers and reservoirs filled by rainfall and runoff. If you live in Perth, much of your water (about 40%) comes from groundwater. But you might be surprised to know that a sizeable proportion of water in Australia came from recycling or desalination in 2013-14. 39% of Perth’s water came from desalination and 41% of Adelaide’s. All cities also used small portions of recycled water: Melbourne (4%), Sydney (7%), southeast Queensland (7%), and Canberra (8%). The Bureau of Meteorology recently released, for the first time, comprehensive national data on these “climate-resilient” water sources, through a new online portal provided as part of the Bureau’s Improving Water Information program. Climate-resilient water sources are those on which climate variability, such as variations in rainfall, temperature and drought, has little or no influence. The data set provides information on two of the most significant such sources: desalination and water recycling. The Climate Resilient Water Sources web portal is an interactive site providing comprehensive mapping and information of desalinated and recycled water sources for over 350 sites across Australia, both publicly and privately owned and operated. Users can access the portal, to search information on capacity, production, location and use of these alternative water sources across Australia. How many desalination and recycled water plants does Australia have? Below you can see the amount of desalinated and recycled water sourced for Australia’s cities in 2013–14 from the National Performance Report released in May 2015. From the Climate Resilient Water Source data we can also see which parts of Australia have the greatest climate resilient capacity compared to their sourced water (including surface, ground, recycled water and desalination). Western Australia has greater climate resilient capacity than its total water sourced in 2013–14, as you can see in the chart below: We can also see that more than 50% of reported production of recycled or desalinated water in 2012-13 (410,491 ML) was for urban use (residential, domestic, commercial, industrial, municipal). Read More here Improving Water Information: data, status and forecasts Australia’s variable climate drivers Weather and climate drivers: Floods, drought, and climate change are all driven by a number of processes in the atmosphere and oceans but the changes are driven at different timescales. The drivers shown in the map interact with each other and influence different parts of the continent to bring local weather and climate. The drivers include circulation patterns in the Pacific Ocean that bring El Niño conditions associated with drought in eastern Australia and La Niña conditions that are associated with floods. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a similar pattern in the Indian Ocean that can bring drought to south-west and south-east Australia, and the Southern Annular Mode are the major influences on rainfall (and thus runoff) in Australia. For more detail visit BOM here. Relatively small changes in rainfall are amplified to much larger changes in runoff and groundwater recharge, which make Australia’s water resources the most variable in the world. Water management is highly adapted to this variability, but the millennium drought in south-east Australia and the sharp drop in runoff in the South West of Western Australia since 1975 have tested the effectiveness of these adaptations. New measures are being introduced such as urban water supplies that are less dependent on runoff and the return of water to the environment to make it more sustainable. Climate change is occurring on top of that variability and in southern Australia it is likely to further reduce water resources. For the moderate climate change predicted to occur by 2030, the adaptation to droughts and floods can be effective, because the worst consequences are likely to be more intense droughts and less frequent but more intense floods. For further climate change, projected to occur by 2050 or 2070, the conditions of the millennium drought might become the average future water availability, which would have profound consequences for the way water is used and for ecosystems. The understanding of how climate influences water can help make water management more adaptable, such as through improved seasonal forecasts, and it can help communities plan how they will respond to reduced water availability in future. Source: CSIRO Water 7 climate chapter 3 from Water – Science & Solutions Report Understanding the ENSO Influence Source: BOM ENSO Wrap-up Groundwater use is increasing across Australia but the total use is difficult to estimate. Most groundwater is extracted by individual users and is rarely metered, and only a small fraction is managed through distribution networks. In 2004–05, licences for groundwater use were about 4700 GL/year, or 25% of the total amount of water consumed in Australia.2,3 Unlicensed use of groundwater – mainly for stock and domestic uses – is estimated to consume an additional 1100 GL/year.4 The amount of groundwater used is estimated to have almost doubled since the mid 1980s. Increased use of groundwater has been facilitated by recent drilling technologies and cheap submersible pumps that can lift water from considerable depths. In the drier parts of Australia, groundwater is the predominant water source because surface water resources are so scarce. Perth and Alice Springs, for example, rely on groundwater for about 80 and 100% of their water supply, respectively. When surface water resources become scarce, users turn to groundwater to meet their needs. Declines in surface water availability during the millennium drought in the southern Murray–Darling Basin led to a modest rise in groundwater use (1240 GL in 2000–01 to 1531 GL in 2007–08), but a sharp rise in the proportion of water supplied from groundwater (11% to 37%).5 Given the reliability of supply and convenience of self supply, the use of groundwater may not return to previous levels, even when surface water availability does. Many aquifers with high historical rates of use are showing symptoms of over-use, such as falling water tables and lower aquifer pressures and subsequent impacts on future use, groundwater salinity, river flows, and ecosystems. The level of over-use was not recognised for decades because of the lags inherent in large, flat, and slow moving groundwater systems. Remediation of these systems is expensive and difficult because salinity and ecological damage are hard to reverse, and because of the historical expectation of reliable water supplies. Inadvertent impacts of recent strong growth in groundwater use have not been felt yet and, given that the consequences of present use are in many cases still to be felt, some caution should be exercised around future groundwater development, by putting effective risk assessment and management processes in place. Source: CSIRO Water & Climate chapter 4 from Water – Science & Solutions Report All things groundwater in Australia BOM Groundwater information: The Bureau provides a suite of nationally consistent groundwater data and information products. Government, industry and the general public can use these products to inform decision-making and research about groundwater resources. Groundwater information products: A third of the world’s biggest groundwater basins are in distress 16 June 2015, Two new studies led by UC Irvine using data from NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites show that civilization is rapidly draining some of its largest groundwater basins, yet there is little to no accurate data about how much water remains in them. The result is that significant segments of Earth’s population are consuming groundwater quickly without knowing when it might run out, the researchers conclude. The findings appear today in Water Resources Research. “Available physical and chemical measurements are simply insufficient,” said UCI professor and principal investigator Jay Famiglietti, who is also the senior water scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Given how quickly we are consuming the world’s groundwater reserves, we need a coordinated global effort to determine how much is left.” The studies are the first to characterize groundwater losses via data from space, using readings generated by NASA’s twin GRACE satellites that measure dips and bumps in Earth’s gravity, which is affected by the weight of water. For the first paper, researchers examined the planet’s 37 largest aquifers between 2003 and 2013. The eight worst off were classified as overstressed, with nearly no natural replenishment to offset usage. Another five aquifers were found, in descending order, to be extremely or highly stressed, depending upon the level of replenishment in each — still in trouble but with some water flowing back into them. The most overburdened are in the world’s driest areas, which draw heavily on underground water. Climate change and population growth are expected to intensify the problem. Read More here Need for Water Futures and Solutions 7 June 2016, YALE Connections: Climate Changing the Menu: A selection of downloadable reports on climate change, agriculture, and food. Along with the flood of books dealing with food and climate change issues, a wealth of free substantive reports, available as PDF downloads, also beckon for readers’ attention and action. Part Two of bibliophile Michael Svoboda’s “Climate changing the menu” selections offers links to a trove of recent authoritative reports . . . enough to make any foodie late for their next meal. The descriptions of the studies below are drawn from copy provided by the publishers. Access reports here In 2009 seven countries (USA, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Russia and France) were responsible for more than 50% of the annual global exports of wheat, maize, soybeans, rapeseed, chicken and beef. In addition, two countries (Thailand and Vietnam) were responsible for 50% of the annually export of rice. Most of these exporting countries have access to significant amounts of annually renewable water resources, Australia being the exception. This chapter also shows how the amount of virtual water differs between the different countries. Source: Virtual Water, University of British Columbia Australia and the Global Food and Water Crisis Source: Water Scarcity and Future Challenges for Food Production Future Directions International preamble from their webpage regarding “Australia’s role in solving future global food and water crises”: Food and water insecurity are among the most formidable challenges facing the world. The potential for food or water crises to manifest between now and 2050 is high. If such events were to occur, they would lead to rising poverty levels, slowing growth and development, and widespread instability and conflict. Australia’s greatest responsibility and opportunity in the 21st century is to help feed a hungry world. Mobilisation of political will and an overhaul of the existing global food systems are critical to avert crises. To access Future Directions Reports: “Food and Water Security: Our Global Challenge”; The Forgotten Resource: Groundwater in Australia 28 May 2015, Future Directions International: Urban agriculture is becoming an increasingly prominent topic in discussions on food security in Australia. More than 90 per cent of Australia’s population lives in urban centres and depends on a decreasing agricultural workforce to meet increasing food demand. Long food supply chains, although economically efficient, lead to poor nutritional and environmental outcomes for society. The re-localisation of food production will support and enhance Australia’s food system and has the potential to increase access to nutritious, affordable food for the most vulnerable. Australia produces enough food to feed 60 million people, yet economic barriers leave an estimated 2 million Australians dependent on food relief annually. Foodbank Australia is reportedly struggling to meet demand; it turns away as many as 60,000 people each month due to a shortage of food. To enhance food security, efforts need to be focussed on overcoming the increasingly volatile food prices that are expected to occur as a result of increased production and energy costs and the effects of climate change. There is a strong consensus amongst academics and policy makers that urban agriculture is a viable means of increasing domestic food security. Urban agriculture has assisted communities in both developed and developing nations to cope with food insecurity, by ensuring local availability of nutritional and affordable food. Greater support, however, is required from the Federal, State and Local governments, to ensure that benefits can be realised within Australian cities. Read More here
Complexity of food distribution The ZCA Land Use Report outlines a range of measures that can substantially reduce emissions and provide opportunities for farmers in building resilience to the impacts of climate change. These measures encompass both agriculture and forestry and address emissions at the scale required to prevent catastrophic climate change. The Land Use Report analyses the suite of land use practices in Australia for their function as a source of greenhouse emissions, the potential of the landscape to draw down atmospheric CO2, and the likely impact of changes to land use patterns on local economies. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of how Australia can manage its productive capacity, ecological heritage and ecosystems services for the future. The ZCA Land Use report is can be ordered via our online shop. It is also available for free download. Water and climate change
7 October 2015, Climate Council: The price, quality and seasonality of Australia’s food is increasingly being affected by climate change with Australia’s future food security under threat, our new report has revealed. Australia’s food supply chain is highly exposed to disruption from increasing extreme weather events driven by climate change, with farmers already struggling to cope with more frequent and intense droughts and changing weather patterns.
Agriculture – feeding the world
March 2015, NASA GISS Science Brief, Study Assesses Fragility of Global Food System: If you were in the New York metropolitan area (the home of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) in the days after Hurricane Sandy, you might have experienced something seemingly unthinkable in 21st century America: empty food shelves at the supermarkets for days and days. New Yorkers believe that they can stand up to whatever life throws at them, yet this experience caught even the proudest natives off-guard…..Taking a step back, should we really be surprised by a disruption to our regional food system? More importantly, how concerned should we be about the stability of our global food system in a world marked by geopolitical, economic, and climatic uncertainties? Read More here
Zero Carbon Australia Discussion Paper: Land Use: Agriculture and Forestry: Emissions in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Australia are high and growing. The UNFCCC National Inventory Report suggests that sources of land use emissions, such as land clearing for agriculture and enteric (intestinal) fermentation from digestive processes in livestock, contribute 15% of national emissions. Australia’s land use sector is in a unique position to mitigate (reduce) climate impacts and take a leading role in addressing climate change. Agriculture and forestry are the only sectors of the Australian economy that can draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere by sequestering it in growing plants and in the soil. The agriculture and forestry sectors can mitigate climate impacts on the land, bringing prosperity to rural areas in the process. The Zero Carbon Australia Land Use report explores how this can be done.