15 February 2016, Renew Economy, BP’s energy outlook barely changed after Paris climate agreement to achieve net zero emissions this century. Yet the 2016 BP energy outlook, published this week, shows the oil company’s views on the shape and direction of energy demand over the next 20 years have barely shifted. Carbon Brief explores why BP’s outlook appears impervious to the world’s first universal, global commitment to cut emissions. Models are wrong Before looking at the findings of BP’s outlook, it’s worth remembering that it is a modelling exercise. While models can be useful, they’re always wrong, particularly when it comes to energy. Forecasts often say more about the assumptions of the modellers than anything else. The most rigorous projections explore a range of plausible assumptions. Aware of these limitations, BP’s outlook starts with a hefty disclaimer that’s worth quoting from: “Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors.” Likely outlook Now that we’ve got the small print out of the way, let’s turn to the main findings of the outlook. The report’s focus is a “base case”. This is the “most likely” future scenario, according to BP. Has that future shifted as a result of the Paris climate agreement? Has its expectations shifted after 189 countries pledged to tackle their emissions? The charts below compare the path of energy and CO2 emissions growth between 2015 and 2035, according to BP’s energy outlooks from 2014, 2015 and 2016. The most striking feature is how little has changed. It is almost as if Paris never happened. Where there are differences, economic factors seem to be at work rather than the climate treaty. Read More here
Category Archives: The Mitigation Battle
9 February 2016, Renew Economy, Coalition restates wish to axe CEFC, then unveils its largest program. The Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the Coalition’s clean energy policies were underlined again on Monday, with the Federal government trumpeting one of the biggest ever programs by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, just hours after it repeated its wish to close the agency down. On Monday, Coalition MP Jane Ruston, appearing before a Senate Environment and Communications Legislation Committee hearing, had confirmed that it remained the Coalition’s intention to dismantle the CEFC, if it could get enough votes in the Senate. Greens Senator Scott Ludlam: Is it still government policy to abolish the CEFC? Ruston: …Yes. Ludlam: …Why? Ruston: …I think the government made it pretty clear when we were elected that we didn’t believe we should be in the job of being a bank. (Ruston apparently forgot that the Coalition has proposed the $5 billion northern Australia infrastructure fund, which is to operate on the same principles as the CEFC, just in a different area). Hours later, federal environment minister Greg Hunt trumpeted the launch of one of the green bank’s biggest investments yet, claiming credit for a $250 million energy efficiency program targeting community housing in Australian cities.
Hunt – in a media release sent while he was in Dubai, where he is attending the World Government Summit, and is thought to be a finalist in the “world’s best minister” award – said the CEFC-led program would drive the construction of market-leading energy efficient community housing project in 2016. He said this would contribute to the greening of Australia’s cities and built environment. It will provide as many as 1,000 new energy efficient dwellings Australia wide. Interestingly, Hunt said his department “had directed the CEFC to focus on cities and the built environment under its new Investment Mandate, which also included financing emerging and innovative renewable energy technologies as well as energy efficiency.” Read more here
8 February 2016, Climate Home, EU faces two-year wrangle to ratify Paris climate deal. The European Union faces months of internal wrangling before it can ratify the UN climate deal agreed in Paris last December. Brussels will take part in a signing ceremony to be hosted by Ban Ki-moon at UN headquarters in New York this April. But experts say it could take until late 2017 or 2018 to get the detail member states need to formally accept the agreement. And the 28-strong bloc’s leaders are showing little appetite for raising ambition during that time, despite Brussels backing a tougher global goal at the critical UN summit. At a panel event hosted by think tank Bruegel on Monday, climate and energy commissioner Miguel Arias Canete reeled off a long list of policies. “We will have to work very hard in 2016 to overcome the last hurdles of the agreement,” he said. “All signatories have to live up to their responsibilities and implement the agreed provisions.” What was not evident was any shift in strategy post-Paris. It was left to Hendrik Bourgeois of General Electric to point out that the EU’s 2030 climate targets were inconsistent with the Paris pact. At the UN summit, Canete boasted of helping to build a “high ambition coalition” between rich and poor nations. The resulting text promised to hold global warming “well below 2C” and “pursue efforts” for a 1.5C limit. The EU2030 package agreed in 2014 – emissions cuts of “at least” 40% from 1990 levels – was based on an earlier, less demanding 2C threshold. “Things will have to change and action will be necessary,” said Bourgeois. Read More here
8 February 2016, The Guardian, Queensland miners’ call for tax relief to save jobs is ‘outrageous’, say opponents. Queensland’s resources industry has called on the state and federal governments for help to save thousands of jobs after a study showed that a third of the state’s coalmines are running at a loss. The report, commissioned by the Queensland Resources Council (QRC), also found that more than half of the mines producing thermal coal for power stations were losing money. “It’s really time for government to sit down with the industry and see what we can do to hang onto the jobs we’ve got,” the chief executive of QRC, Michael Roche, told ABC radio. Roche said governments must consider what support could be given to the industry, such as tax relief. He said conditions were some of the worst faced in decades. But the anti-mining group Lock the Gate said it was “outrageous” for miners to claim more help from the state government, which he said already gave $3bn a year in various subsidies to the industry. “The industry is inherently cyclical and there is no case for industry relief. The industry should have been prepared for the inevitable downturn,” said spokesman Drew Hutton. “Mining is a long-term business and it obviously did a very poor job in managing its cashflow. The Queensland government must resist subsidising mining and rewarding them for poorly managing their businesses.” Roche estimated that 21,000 jobs had been lost in the industry in Queensland in the past two years as demand from China has slowed and commodity prices have plunged. “We would like government to think about what we need to do to protect the remaining 60,000 jobs in the Queensland resources sector,” Roche said. But Lock The Gate said the industry provided less than 3% of jobs in Queensland and that rehabilitating the landscape from the impact of open-cut coal mining in particular would create far more employment than financial relief for existing operations. Read More here