9 December 2015, Washington Post, How the Earth itself could undermine a Paris climate agreement. PARIS — With only three days left, tensions here are rising as countries race to resolve outstanding differences and forge an agreement that — hopefully — will set the planet on a path to avoiding the worst consequences of climate change. The goal is an agreement that would set the world on a path to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, or perhaps even 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels. But at a news conference here at the Le Bourget conference center Wednesday morning, scientists pointed out a factor that could make hitting these targets quite a lot harder. It’s called permafrost. As the planet warms, this frozen northern soil is going to continue to thaw — and as it thaws, it’s going to release carbon dioxide and methane into the air. A lot of it, it turns out. Potentially enough to really throw off the carbon budgets that have been calculated in order to determine the maximum emissions that we can release and still have a good chance of keeping warming to 2 C or below it. In particular, Susan Natali of the Woods Hole Research Center explained Wednesday that with a very high level of warming, permafrost emissions this century could be quite large indeed. Natali used numbers from the 2013 report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found that humans can only emit about 275 more gigatons, or billion tons, of carbon (about 1,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide, which has a greater molecular weight) to have a greater than 66 percent chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees C. But out of that limited budget, she said, permafrost emissions could take up some 150 of those gigatons (or about 550 gigatons of carbon dioxide). Read More here
Category Archives: Other Sources of GHG
1 December 2015, Renew Economy, Malcolm Turnbull does a Kevin Rudd and ratifies Kyoto Protocol. PARIS: Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has followed in the footsteps of former Labor PM Kevin Rudd, and announced that Australia would ratify the Kyoto Protocol – a move we flagged yesterday and one that could increase pressure on Australia to lift its near-term targets. In both cases, the gesture came in the weeks after the two prime ministers were elevated to their position, and followed predecessors bitterly opposed to the ratification, John Howard and Tony Abbott respectively. In the case of Rudd in 2007, it was the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, and Australia had been a significant hold-out against the treaty. It earned him a standing ovation at the Bali conference, but little influence in Copenhagen. Turnbull has now decided to ratify the second period of the Kyoto Protocol, at Paris, several years after it signed the treaty. It doesn’t make a lot of difference in itself, but it was seen as an important gesture to developing nations while a new treaty that includes all countries is negotiated in Paris. And, in any case, it would be churlish not to, considering that Australia will use a heavy overhang of surplus credits from the first period of the Kyoto Protocol to meet its 2020 targets. And legal access to international credits may help Australia meet its targets.Read More here
25 November 2015, New Matilda, Halting Climate Change Means More Than Cutting Carbon. With the Paris climate talks just around the corner a focus on carbon dioxide is not enough. Geoff Russell explains. With yet another in the seemingly infinite sequence of climate summit conferences looming it’s time to take stock of what’s been happening over the past 25 years. But I’ll be taking stock properly, which means not being CO2 centric. Focusing exclusively on CO2 is rather like focusing on protein when thinking about nutrition: it’s simply silly. It’s been seven years since Barry Brook and I wrote an article about the misleading nature of the so-called “carbon dioxide equivalence” factor used to aggregate methane emissions in Greenhouse Inventories. This isn’t a priority claim; many understood the problem before us. Among the first was Kirk Smith of the University of California, Berkeley. Smith is an expert in air quality, among other things, and was the first to measure and understand the impact of indoor cooking smoke on health in India. Globally, it kills people, mainly women and children, by the hundreds of thousands every year. He’s also been tackling the problem in a practical way by spinning off students and companies designing and building cleaner cookers. Smith’s latest work, with main author Manish Desai, calculates a metric called the International Natural Debt (IND) which is a better than average measure who is responsible for our climate woes. Their study uses national emission inventories and greenhouse gas equations to calculate precisely the impact of emissions on radiative forcing (that’s just jargon for warming). In effect, while they don’t include all the components of a full climate model, they do at least account for the full impact of methane on warming. Their estimate, based on the best inventory data is that anthropogenic methane, on its own, contributes about half of our net warming influence on the climate. In technical language methane is about ~850 mW/m2 of the net ~1600 mW/m2 of anthropogenic radiative forcing. That makes methane a big deal. Even more importantly, reductions in methane have an almost immediate cooling impact. Read More here
23 November 2015, Aljazeera, Siberia’s melting permafrost fuels climate change. Over the past year, a number of giant, mysterious holes have emerged in Siberia, some as deep as 200 metres. Scientists say the craters may be emerging because the frozen ground, or “permafrost”, that covers much of Siberia has been thawing due to climate change, allowing methane gases trapped underground to build up and explode. Permafrost is ground that is permanently frozen, where the ground temperature has remained below zero degrees Celsius for at least two years. It covers about a quarter of the northern hemisphere’s land surface. When permafrost thaws, microbes digest the plant and animal remains that were locked in the permafrost and release greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. The phenomenon is a self-feeding cycle, explained Sarah Chadburn, from the University of Exeter. “Permafrost soils contain vast amounts of carbon, nearly twice as much as is currently in the atmosphere. As the permafrost thaws in a warming climate, the soil decomposes and releases carbon to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane. These are greenhouse gases, and they warm the Earth even more. This leads to more permafrost thawing, more carbon release, and so the cycle continues,” Chadburn said. Read More here