18 November 2015, Science Daily, Sea level rise from Antarctic collapse may be slower than suggested. A new study by scientists in the UK and France has found that Antarctic ice sheet collapse will have serious consequences for sea level rise over the next two hundred years, though not as much as some have suggested. This study, published today in the journal Nature, uses an ice-sheet model to predict the consequences of unstable retreat of the ice, which recent studies suggest has begun in West Antarctica. Scientists, led by Catherine Ritz from Université Grenoble Alpes in France and Tamsin Edwards from The Open University, predict that the contribution is most likely to be 10 cm of sea-level rise this century under a mid to high climate scenario, but is extremely unlikely to be higher than 30 cm. When combined with other contributions, that’s a significant challenge for adapting to future sea level rise. But it’s also far lower than some previous estimates, which were as high as one metre from Antarctica alone. The study’s central estimate raises the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) central prediction of 60 cm global sea-level rise by just a few centimetres under the mid to high scenario they used. But the UK and France team’s method allowed them to assess the likelihood of sea-level rise from substantial parts of the ice sheet collapsing, which the IPCC could not due to a lack of evidence. They predict there is a one in twenty chance that Antarctic collapse could contribute more than 30 cm sea-level rise by the end of the century and more than 72 cm by 2200. This does not rule out larger contributions on longer time scales. Read More here
Category Archives: Impacts Observed & Projected
18 November 2015, The Conversation, Shrinking Antarctic glaciers could make Adélie penguins unlikely winners of climate change. Penguin numbers exploded in East Antarctica at the end of the last ice age, according to research published today in BMC Evolutionary Biology. Despite their image as cold-loving creatures, the increase in Adélie penguin numbers seems to be closely linked to shrinking glaciers, raising the possibility the these penguins could be winners from current climate change. Adélie penguins are one of only two penguin species that live on the Antarctic continent. Their cousins, emperor penguins, may be the movie stars, but it is the Adélies that are the bigger players in the Southern Ocean. They outnumber emperors by more than ten to one, with a population of over 7.5 million breeding adults and counting. Given the abundance of Adélie penguins and their crucial role in Southern Ocean ecosystems, there has been a great deal of interest in understanding how the species is likely to respond to future climate change. Sensitivity to sea ice Breeding colonies have been monitored for decades to determine the effects of a changing environment on the penguins. A common finding of many of these studies is that Adélies are highly sensitive to sea ice conditions. Unlike emperor penguins, Adélies do not nest on the sea ice, but they must cross it to reach their nests on land. As everyone knows, penguins are not the most efficient walkers, and in years with a lot of sea ice their journeys to and from the ocean to feed their chicks can become lengthy. With a longer wait between meals chicks are less likely to survive. In an extreme case, extensive sea ice at one breeding colony had a devastating impact in 2014, and not a single chick survived. Read More here
16 November 2015, Science Daily, Bird decline shows that climate change is more than just hot air. Scientists have long known that birds are feeling the heat due to climate change. However, a new study of a dozen affected species in the Western Cape suggests their decline is more complex than previously thought — and in some cases more serious. According to the study, published in Conservation Physiology, by scientists from the Percy Fitzpatrick Institute at the University of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, there could be several reasons why birds are being negatively affected by human-made climate change. They suggest that contrary to expectations the birds’ heat tolerance — or lack thereof — is not necessarily the main factor chasing species out of their preferred habitat. Other factors like changing fire and rainfall patterns, and new bird behaviour patterns could also be responsible for the decline, according to the study which includes some well-known species such as the Malachite Sunbird and the Familiar Chat. Lead researcher Susie Cunningham says a better understanding of how climate change affects bird species could help develop conservation strategies to increase chances of survival: “We know climate change is linked to changes in species’ numbers and distributions, but we don’t always know exactly how or why,” Cunningham says. “We need to figure out the factors actually driving declines before we can develop proper conservation measures to halt them.” Read More here
16 November 2015, Science Daily, Earth’s climate more sensitive to carbon dioxide than previously thought. Ancient climates on Earth may have been more sensitive to carbon dioxide than was previously thought, according to new research from Binghamton University. A team of Binghamton University researchers including geology PhD student Elliot A. Jagniecki and professors Tim Lowenstein, David Jenkins and Robert Demicco examined nahcolite crystals found in Colorado’s Green River Formation, formed 50 million years old during a hothouse climate. They found that CO2 levels during this time may have been as low as 680 parts per million (ppm), nearly half the 1,125 ppm predicted by previous experiments. The new data suggests that past predictions significantly underestimate the impact of greenhouse warming and that Earth’s climate may be more sensitive to increased carbon dioxide than was once thought, said Lowenstein. “The significance of this is that CO2 50 million years ago may not have been as high as we once thought it was, but the climate back then was significantly warmer than it is today,” said Lowenstein. CO2 levels in the atmosphere today have reached 400 ppm. According to current projections, doubling the CO2 will result in a rise in the global average temperature of 3 degrees Centigrade. This new research suggests that the effects of CO2 on global warming may be underestimated. “Take notice that carbon dioxide 50 million years ago may not have been as high as we once thought it was. We may reach that level in the next century, and so the climate change from that increase could be pretty severe, pretty dramatic. CO2 and other climate forcings may be more important for global warming than we realized.” The only direct measurement of carbon dioxide is from ice cores, which only go back less than 1 million years. Lowenstein and his team are trying to develop ways to estimate ancient carbon dioxide in the atmosphere using indirect proxies. He said that their approach is different than any ever undertaken. “These are direct chemical measurements that are based on equilibrium thermodynamics,” he said. “These are direct laboratory experiments, so I think they’re really reliable. Read More here