14 December 2015, Energy Post, Paris emission cuts aren’t enough – we’ll have to put carbon back in the ground. With the Paris climate deal, the world has created the mother of all take-back schemes, writes Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science at the University of Oxford. According to Allen, fossil fuel companies don’t necessarily have to stop producing CO2 – they just need to be required to ensure it doesn’t end up in the atmosphere. #takebackCO2 – start tweeting it now! Courtesy of The Conversation. I wonder how many of the delegates in Paris realise that they have just created the mother of all “take-back schemes”. As a consumer, you may have already come across this sort of deal: if you don’t want to dispose of the packaging of your new sofa, you can take it back to IKEA and it’s their problem. In many places, you can even take back the sofa itself when your kids have wrecked it. For the Paris climate deal to succeed something similar will have to happen, where companies that rely on fossil fuels will be obliged to “take back” their emissions. The agreement reaffirms a commitment to stabilising temperature rises well below 2℃, and even retains the option of limiting warming to 1.5℃ if possible. But it also confirms national targets that do little more than stabilise global emissions between now and 2030. Given those emissions, sticking to within 2℃ will require us to take lots of carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in the ground. The parties to the agreement are, in effect, saying “we’re going to sell this stuff, and we’re going to dispose of it later”. How do I know? Well, peak warming is overwhelmingly determined bycumulative carbon dioxide emissions. To stabilise temperatures at any level, be it 1.5℃, 2℃ or even 3℃, net carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to zero. Most governments, environmental groups and business leaders now understand this. And it is acknowledged, albeit implicitly, in Article 4 of the Paris agreement, which calls for greenhouse emissions to be “balanced” by carbon sinks some time after mid-century. But we’re unlikely to hit “net zero” emissions before temperatures reach 2℃, and even less likely before they reach 1.5℃. Warming is currently at about 1℃ and rising by 0.1℃ every five to ten years. We could slow the warming by reducing emissions, of course. But if we fail to reduce at the required rate – and the inadequate emissions targets indicate this is the intention – then we will be left with no option but to scrub the excess CO2 back out of the atmosphere in future. Read More here
Category Archives: Global Action Inaction
13 December 2015, Renew Economy, Lomborg legacy: Why Turnbull Coalition still doesn’t get it. In the final, frantic, virtually sleepless hours in Paris before the global climate deal was finalised on Saturday, Australia found itself on the outer of a powerful international movement. Canada, once joined at the hip with Australia as one of the developed world’s two “climate dunces”,signed up to the Coalition for High Ambition – a 100-strong grouping of countries pushing for an ambitious climate treaty that sought to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Then came Brazil, breaking away from its traditional allies India and China to declare that “if you want to tackle climate change, you need ambition and political will.” It was not a formal voting block, but its influence in the final days of the talks was critical. This was acknowledged by the cheers in the plenary session on the final day of the Paris talks when Marshall Islands foreign minister Tony de Brum walked in at the head of his coalition colleagues. Australia was not among them. It had found itself marginalised as we explained on Friday, by the lingering impact of Tony Abbott’s war on climate policies and renewable energy. Foreign minister Julie Bishop then made a last minute bid to sign Australia up. But it wasn’t until the Coalition had arrived on the floor of the plenary session where France announced – to general acclimation – that the finalised text would be soon released, that Bishop managed to secure her “pin”. By then, it was all but over. Read More here
10 December 2015, Renew Economy, Paris, COP21: Negotiating blocks fracture in push for high ambition. In what may be one of the most significant developments ever seen in the 21-year history of the UN climate negotiations, a new coalition has emerged that combines the US, European nations, oil producers and vulnerable nations pushing for an ambitious outcome to the talks. The new grouping, called the Coalition for Ambition, has pulled in support from more than 100 countries with a range of economic drivers and motivations. They include Pacific nations, vulnerable African countries, oil producers such as Mexico, Norway and other European countries, and the US. Australia is not a member of the grouping because, Marshall Islands foreign minister Tony de Brum told RenewEconomy, it had not yet been invited. The grouping is seen by analysts as a sign that the most significant negotiating blocs at the Paris talks, the G77, representing China and developing countries, is showing signs of fracture. Apart from a common interest in finance, the needs of these countries now vary widely. China, facing crippling pollution at home, is prepared for a deal. India, seeking rapid growth, is playing hardball. The OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, are trying to dilute the target. Poor and vulnerable nations want an ambitious and legally binding deal. The first signs of division emerged earlier this week, when Venezuela, Malaysia and Cuba tried to prise the grip of France on guiding the negotiations, only to be slapped down by the Marshall Islands and South Africa. The contrast between the oil producers of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and Mexico was striking. “We are a big oil producer, but we still want high ambition,” the Mexico representative said on Wednesday. Noted one veteran observer: “I can’t recall a CoP (conference of the parties) where you have the US, EU, and the most vulnerable parties standing up and calling for the need to reference 1.5°C as a target.” Read More here
10 December 2015, The VERB, The 1.5 Placebo.Moments before the Paris climate agreement is to be decided upon, the draft text (as of 3pm Wednesday) still contains three different options surrounding its overall objective. The draft retains options to limit warming to below 2°C, below 1.5°C, or ‘well’ below 2°C with mention of scaling up efforts to stay below 1.5°C. As The Verb reported earlier in the week, half a degree of difference is highly economically significant, and for vulnerable nations may be the difference between persistence and functional destruction. For many small island states, a target of 1.5°C has been a long held objective that has gained increasing support in Paris. “To hold the temperature within 2°C is not an acceptable goal,” said Barbados Environment Minister Dr. Denis Lowe, who argued that “the goal should be 1.5°C, that is what will keep us alive.” Day one of the negotiations saw leaders of 106 states sign a statement calling for 1.5°C to become the long-term temperature goal. This was in lieu of the 2°C target, established in the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. Canada, France, Germany, the UK, Australia, China, and the US have since expressed support for including the 1.5°C target in some capacity. At first glance, this shift sounds good – it may even make people feel better about the possibility of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. But it appears to be a placebo, and it may come at the expense of more effective responses. The challenge of limiting warming to below 1.5°C is enormous given current carbon dioxide concentrations and emissions. Some call it unfeasible. There are currently 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a number that is growing at two parts per million per year. New research suggests that we would have to stabilise concentrations between 420 and 440 parts per million by 2100 to have even a 50% chance of holding warming below 1.5°C. Read More here