6 December 2015, Climate News Network, Scientists post extreme weather warning. COP21: Climate change means that temperate Europe faces the twin threat of life-threatening heatwaves and periods of bitter cold over the next 20 years. New research warns that longer, hotter and more frequent heatwaves than those that killed 55,000 Russians in 2010, or 72,000 in France, Portugal, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK in 2003, will hit Europe in the next two decades. But, over the same period, Europe could also begin to get colder as a consequence of a drop in solar activity, and a century-long chill could be on the way, according to a study of long-period climate cycles. And if global warming accelerates, and average global ocean temperatures rise by 6°C or more, most of the living, breathing world could in any case begin to suffocate, according to ominous calculations by a mathematician. At some point, the providers of oxygen could begin to perish. All three uncomfortable projections were published as 30,000 delegates, politicians, observers, pressure groups, and journalists gathered in Paris for COP21, the UN summit on climate change, which is meeting to try to forge an agreement that could, ultimately, limit global warming to a planetary average of 2°C or less. Magnitude index Simone Russo, a geophysicist, and colleagues from the European Union Joint Research Centre at Ispra in Italy report in Environmental Research Letters that they developed a heatwave magnitude index to cope with a problem once considered improbable for temperate Europe − extremes of heat. The index is a tool for statistical analysis, and provides a way of matching bygone events with possible future extremes. Deaths in Europe accounted for 90% ofglobal mortality from heat extremes in the last 20 years. And there could be more on the way. Read More here
Category Archives: Ecosystem Stress
25 November 2015, The conversation, Ashes to ashes: logging and fires have left Victoria’s magnificent forests in tatters. In February 2009 the Black Saturday bushfires swept through the Mountain Ash forests of Victoria, burning 72,000 hectares. These forests are home to the tallest flowering plants on the planet, and iconic species such as the Leadbeater’s Possum, Victoria’s animal emblem. In the six years since the fires, we and other scientists have been investigating how the forests have recovered, summarised in our new book. This research was in turn built on 25 years of research before the fires. There’s some good news and some bad. The forests and their inhabitants have a remarkable capacity for recovery from natural disturbances like fire. However, the forest ecosystem is in a precarious state, largely due to the continuation of Victoria’s logging industry. Winners and losers Some species seemed to fare well after the fires, or even to have benefited from them. In the week leading up to the 2009 fires, 18 Brushtail Possums were fitted with radio-tracking collars, and all were found alive two months later. After the fire, Flame Robins arrived in the forest in huge numbers to take advantage of hunting opportunities in the open burnt forest. The native Bush Rat and carnivorous Agile Antechinus (a minute relative of the Quoll and Tasmanian Devil), were hit hard by the fire. Their numbers were initially severely reduced but then recovered to be equally or more abundant in burnt than unburnt forest within three years. In contrast, other species have struggled in the post-fire environment, such as the Greater Glider and Leadbeater’s Possum. Read More here
24 November 2015, The Conversation, Feeding ‘Godzilla’: as Indonesia burns, its government moves to increase forest destruction. In the midst of its worst fire crisis in living memory, the Indonesian government is taking a leap backward on forest protection. The recently signed Council of Palm Oil Producing Nations between Indonesia and Malaysia, signed at the weekend in Kuala Lumpur, will attempt to wind back palm oil companies’ pledges to end deforestation. This is despite Indonesia’s efforts to end fires and palm oil cultivation on peatlands. If successful the move will undo recent attempts to end deforestation from palm oil production, and exacerbate the risk of future forest fires. Forests on fire Since August, forest and peatland fires have become so widespread across Indonesia that, in satellite images, the nation has looked like an over-lit Christmas tree. The fires have been so bad that carbon emissions from peatland burning alone (forgetting about the many thousands of additional forest fires) have equalled those produced by the entire United States Schools and airports have been repeatedly closed across large expanses of Southeast Asia. To reduce their risks, residents have been told to stay indoors. Some 500,000 people have so far suffered respiratory distress. Nearby Singapore has threatened legal action against several Indonesian companies whose activities have been linked to the fires, provoking a serious diplomatic spat between the two nations. Read More here
24 November 2015, Climate News Network, Trees face global extinction threat. Field scientists warn that damage being done to the Amazon rainforest indicates that most of the world’s 40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as being at risk. More than half of all tree species in the Amazon forest could be at risk of extinction, according to new research. There are at least 15,000 species of tree in and around the Amazon basin and the Guiana Shield. At the lowest estimate, 36% are at risk, but the proportion under threat could also be as high as 57%. And since the Amazon rainforest is one of the planet’s richest habitats, and since what is true for one tropical great forest must apply to others, the research suggests that the number of threatened plant species on the planet could rise by 22%. Tropical trees worldwide number more than 40,000 species, and most of these may qualify as being to some degree threatened. Deforestation maps Hans ter Steege, research fellow at the Naturalis Biodiversity Centre in the Netherlands, and 157 colleagues from 21 countries report in Science Advances journal that they started with data from 1,485 forest inventories and measurements of species density from more than 1,600 plots of forest made across the Amazon region. They matched the information with maps of deforestation happening right now, or projected to happen, and then used statistical methods to make a range of estimates of the numbers of species at risk. The forests of the Amazon have already lost 12% of their original extent. By 2050, they could have lost at least another 9%, and perhaps as much as 28%. The forests are at risk from invasion by people hungry for land, and exploitation for mining and dam construction, as well as fire, drought and climate change. Read More here