27 July 2015, The Guardian, The Daily Mail and Telegraph get it wrong on Arctic sea ice, again: Coverage of a recent paper on Arctic sea ice and climate change suggests conservative media can’t seem to grasp the concept of long-term trends. Cherry-picking is one of the five telltale techniques of climate change denial. By focusing on short-term blips in noisy data, those who want to maintain the status quo can distract from the long-term threats posed by climate change. Climate contrarians most frequently deploy this strategy using global temperature and Arctic sea ice data. A recent study in Nature Geoscience concluded that, not surprisingly, there is a strong relationship between the summer temperatures in the Arctic (specifically the number of “melting degree days”), and the amount of sea ice that melts in a given year. 2013 happened to be a relatively cool year in the Arctic – the coolest since 2004. As a result, there was relatively little ice melt in 2013. The annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent and volume were their largest since at least 2009, or perhaps as far back as 2005, according to the data used in this new study. The following figure from the paper is as clear as ice – while there was a short-term increase from 2012 to 2013, the Arctic has lost more than half its sea ice over the past three decades. Read More here
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27 July 2015, The Conversation, Don’t panic! Traffic congestion is not coming for our cities: There is a new fear on the block. Not just ISIS, home invasions, wind turbines and the budget deficit, but now we must fear … traffic congestion. The Infrastructure Australia report on the future needs of our cities emphasises the growing problem of urban traffic congestion all over the country. It is echoed by the State of Australian Cities report. Congestion, it warns, will overwhelm our futures, making them unlivable, uneconomic and ungovernable as we fight for every piece of road space. But do we have to accept that congestion trends will overwhelm us? Is it really right to fear congestion? The fear: According to the IA report travel times are going to increase by at least 20%. The total cost of such congestion will increase from A$13.7 billion a year to A$53.3 billion by 2031, an increase of nearly three times. The loss of time will apparently cripple us.
The public policy reaction to fear is to jettison economic analysis and throw money at it. No benefit-cost ratio is needed as we need to act now or it will overwhelm us. Kneejerk reactions like this are usually regretted in hindsight but at the time we have no choice, it must be done. In this climate of congestion-fear big roads are not being assessed, just announced. The congestion peril is coming. We must honour the Abbott government’s election commitments to around A$40 billion of high-capacity roads such as the East-West Link in Melbourne (now discredited and dropped by the Victorian Government), the Connex West system in Sydney (causing similar pain with communities subject to its impact) and most recently the Perth Freight Link (which looms as the biggest election issue facing the Barnett government that never actually wanted it). All of these roads have benefit cost ratios that make them very questionable. Read More here
27 July 2015, With the Abbott government stalling Australia’s efforts to tackle global warming, leadership from state governments is needed now more than ever. In 2010, the Victorian government introduced the Victorian Climate Change Act. It is currently considering the future of the state’s climate laws. They are calling for public submissions on the Act by Sunday 2 August. It is getting a bit late but ..… Friends of the Earth is proud to join Environmental Justice Australia, Environment Victoria, and the Australian Conservation Foundation to call on the Andrews government to to adopt world leading climate change laws – the Victorian Climate Charter. The Climate Charter proposal would make Victoria a world leader on climate change. It sets binding emission reductions targets for Victoria, establishes a ‘climate test’ for decisions that affect emissions, and gives citizens the right to take the government to court if it is not meeting its climate obligations. It is critical that Victorians use the Climate Change Act review to demand action, and counter calls from industry to go soft on tackling global warming. Your voice is important! Climate action will only happen if the community demands it. The Climate Change Act review is a great opportunity to do just that. Environmental Justice Australia and Friends of the Earth have joined forces to make it quick and easy for you to have your say. Click below and we’ll send your submission directly to the review committee. Go here to sign. Access Charter here
27/7/2015, The Vane, El Niño Probably Won’t Solve California’s Dire Drought: If anyone is eagerly following news of the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific, it’s California. Strong El Niño events have a history of bringing drenching rain to the West Coast during the winter months, and we could see that play out this year. However, don’t get too wrapped-up in the hype—it’s going to take more than one rainy stretch to ease the damage done by the lasting drought. In order to understand what El Niño may or may not do for California, we need to understand El Niño itself, and shockingly (!!!) the national media doesn’t do a great job explaining things that could get them a lot of ratings if they spin it just right (see: polar vortex)….
….The latest update of the drought monitor doesn’t paint a pretty picture across the western United States. Believe it or not, the drought has improved by a hair since September 30—California started the water year with 58% of the state in an exceptional drought, which is the worst of the five categories. As of last Tuesday, only (“only”) 46% of the state is in an exceptional drought. Any progress is progress, I guess.The intensity and duration of this drought is unprecedented in the modern era, and it’s going to take more than a month or two of rain to fix what’s gone so horribly wrong over the past couple of years. The problem with the potential of seeing big bursts of heavy rain is that much of the rain will run off, helping reservoirs and bodies of water no doubt, but causing floods, mud and landslides in the process, not to mention the water being unable to seep into and rejuvenate the soil. This doesn’t even begin to cover the fact that (currently non-existent) snowpack is a huge water resource in the state.Read More here