18 October 2015, Climate News Network, Climate changes can kick in below 2°C limit. Sudden shifts in settled climates can occur long before global warming reaches the internationally-agreed safety level, European scientists say. Climate change could arrive with startling speed. New research has identified at least 37 “tipping points” that would serve as evidence that climate change has happened – and happened abruptly in one particular region. And 18 of them could happen even before the world warms by an average of 2°C, the proposed “safe limit” for global warming. Weather is what happens, climate is what people grow to expect from the weather. So climate change, driven by global warming as a consequence of rising carbon dioxide levels, in response to more than a century of fossil fuel combustion, could be – for many people – gradual, imperceptible and difficult to identify immediately. But Sybren Drijfhout, of the University of Southampton in the UK and his collaborators in France, the Netherlands and Germany, are not so sure. They report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they “screened” the massive ensemble of climate models that inform the most recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and found evidence of abrupt regional changes in the ocean, the sea ice, the snow cover, the permafrost and in the terrestrial biosphere that could happen as average global temperatures reached a certain level. The models did not all simulate the same outcomes, but most of them did predict one or more abrupt regional shifts. No safe limit. But the future is not an exact science. “Our results show that the different state-of-the-art models agree that abrupt changes are likely, but that predicting when and where they will occur remains very difficult,” said Professor Drijfhout. “Also, our results show that no safe limit exists and that many abrupt shifts already occur for global warming levels much lower than two degrees.” The idea of a “tipping point” for climate change has been around for decades: the hypothesis is that a climate regime endures – perhaps with an increasing frequency of heat waves or windstorms or floods – as the average temperatures rise. However, at some point, there must be a dramatic shift to a new set of norms.Read More here
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16 October 2015, The Telegraph, Arctic offshore drilling to be cut back as US says it will not issue new leases. US decision to cancel future lease sales follows decision by Royal Dutch Shell to stop exploration in Chukchi and Beaufort seas. The Interior Department announced Friday it is cancelling future lease sales and will not extended current leases in Arctic waters off Alaska’s northern coast, a decision that significantly reduces the chances for future Arctic offshore drilling. The news follows a Sept. 28 announcement by Royal Dutch Shell that it would cease exploration in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas after spending upward of $7 billion on Arctic exploration. The company cited disappointing results from a well drilled in the Chukchi and the unpredictable federal regulatory environment. Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said the federal government is cancelling federal petroleum lease sales in U.S. Arctic waters that were scheduled for 2016 and 2017. “In light of Shell’s announcement, the amount of acreage already under lease and current market conditions, it does not make sense to prepare for lease sales in the Arctic in the next year and a half,” she said in a statement. Read More here
16 October 2015, BBC News, Paris climate summit: Major oil producers back ‘effective’ deal. The leaders of 10 of the world’s biggest oil companies have offered their qualified support for a new global treaty on climate change. The producers of 20% of the world’s oil and gas say they share the ambition to limit warming to 2C. They promise to work to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the global energy mix. But green groups were dismissive, saying that “arsonists don’t make good firefighters”. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative represents major producers including BP, Shell, Saudi Aramco and Total among others….However the group of 10 does not include major US oil companies such as Exxon and Chevron. Environmental campaigners were quick to pour scorn on the oil and gas producers’ initiative, saying it would do little to aid the decarbonisation of the global economy. “The oil companies behind this announcement have spent years lobbying to undermine effective climate action, each and every one of them has a business plan that would lead to dangerous global temperature rises, yet suddenly they expect us all to see them as the solution, not the problem,” said Charlie Kronick from Greenpeace. “The world should thank them for their offer of advice but politely turn it down. Arsonists don’t make good firefighters.” Read More here
15 October 2015, Carbon Pulse, Australia reapproves gigantic Adani coal mine, Indian CO2 emissions to soar. Environment Minister Greg Hunt on Thursday reapproved the construction of Adani’s Carmichael coal mine in Queensland, Australia’s biggest ever which will see around 60 million tonnes of coal exported to India annually. Hunt first approved the mine last year, but a court annulled the approval earlier this year as the government had failed to take into account the mine’s impact on two threatened species. There has also been strong public opposition against the project amid suspicions it would damage the Great Barrier Reef. The minister said on Thursday the mine had now been “approved in accordance with national environment law subject to 36 of the strictest conditions in Australian history”. Coal from the mine will cause annual CO2 emissions of around 128 million tonnes – roughly similar to the combined GHG emissions of Norway and Sweden – although those emissions will take place in India, where the coal will be exported to. Indian owner Adani has estimated coal from the mine will create 3 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over its 60-year lifespan. “With regard to the impacts of the emissions caused by the use of the coal from the mine, recipient nations will need to meet their obligations under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change,” Australia’s Environment Ministry said. Read More here