PLEA Network

3 August 2015, The Conversation, The scariest part of climate change isn’t what we know, but what we don’t. We know a lot about what climate change will do, but ‘when’ is a tougher question. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”: so goes a Danish proverb attributed variously to baseball coach Yogi Berra and physicist Niels Bohr. Yet some things are so important — such as projecting the future impacts of climate change on the environment — that we obviously must try. An Australian study published last week predicts that some rainforest plants could see their ranges reduced 95% by 2080. How can we make sense of that given the plethora of climate predictions? In a 2002 press briefing, Donald Rumsfeld, President George W. Bush’s Secretary of Defence, distinguished among different kinds of uncertainty: things we know, things we know we don’t know, and things we don’t know we don’t know. Though derided at the time for playing word games, Rumsfeld was actually making a good point: it’s vital to be clear about what we’re unclear about. So here’s my attempt to summarise what we think we know, don’t know, and things that could surprise us about climate change and the environment. Read More here