14 October 2015, Climate News Network, Antarctic ice shelf melting could double by 2050. Scientists find that the combination of global warming and powerful winds sweeping snow off the ice of Antarctica threatens to speed up sea level rise. Antarctica, the planet’s largest desert, is home to 90% of the world’s ice – enough to raise global sea levels by at least 60 metres. So what happens to its ice and snow is a matter of serious concern to all of us. One group has just predicted that, by 2050, the rate at which the ice shelves melt will double. Another reports that powerful winds are not just shifting Antarctica’s snow, but are also blowing 80 billion tonnes of it away, into the sea or the atmosphere. Both cases exemplify the challenges of climate research and the construction of projections for the future. Inland glaciers Ice shelves are already afloat: if they melt, that will make no difference to sea levels. But floating ice that is fixed to the continental shelf also serves as a brake on the flow of glaciers further inland. So without the ice shelf “doorstops”, these could start to shed ice ever faster, and accelerate sea level rise. Luke Trusel, postdoctoral scholar at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institutionin the US, and colleagues report in Nature Geoscience that they foresee a doubling of surface melting of the ice shelves by 2050. If greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion continue at the present rate, by 2100 the melting may surpass the levels associated with collapse of the shelves. Read More here
Yearly Archives: 2015
12 October 2015, Climate Institute, Draft Paris agreement shows many countries still pushing for <1.5°C. Earlier last week the co-chairs of the process to the Paris climate summit released the draft agreement and draft decisions for the outcomes of the meeting. Below is a diagram that outlines, in simple terms, what these would mean for countries’ pollution reduction commitments. Note that this does not include other critical elements of the Paris outcome such as how to build resilience to growing climate change impacts and how to support the world’s poorest nations participate in climate change solutions (‘climate finance’). While critical details remain to be resolved, the draft texts highlight that the contours of the Paris agreement are becoming increasingly clear. The inevitable trend to stronger action is embedded in the draft agreement with countries needing to progressively strengthen action through time. Before getting into the details of this figure, and what it means for Australia’s target, a few overall elements of the draft agreement are worth highlighting: Read More here
12 October 2015, Climate News Network, Climate cash flow to poorer nations is still too slow. Rich countries are failing to fulfil pledges to make billions of dollars available to help the developing world tackle climate change. World leaders are not delivering fully on agreements made at successive climate negotiations to channel US$100 billion annually from rich countries to poor in order to tackle and adapt to climate change. An analysis of cash flows by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) − which links the world’s wealthier countries − finds the target due to be reached by 2020 is still far from being met. The OECD says that, at present, the rich countries are channelling on average about $57bn each year to help poorer nations limit carbon emissions and deal with extreme weather events and rising sea levels. Complex business It has spent several months trying to gauge climate-related cash flows from rich to poor countries − a complex business involving analysis of foreign aid budgets, loans from public and private bodies, and other sources of cash. “Our estimates paint an encouraging picture of progress,” says Angel Gurria, the OECD secretary-general. “We are about halfway in terms of time and more than halfway there in terms of finance, but clearly there is still some way to go.” However, whether or not the wealthier countries are making sufficient commitments will be a key item on the agenda at the major negotiations on climate change being held in Paris in late November and early December this year. Read More here
12 October 2015, Washington Post, Why the Earth’s past has scientists so worried about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. In the last month, there’s been much attention to a cool patch in the North Atlantic Ocean, where record cold temperatures over the past eight months present a stark contrast to a globe that is experiencing record warmth. And although there is certainly no consensus on the matter yet, some scientists think this pattern may be a sign of one long-feared consequence of climate change — a slowing of North Atlantic ocean circulation, due to a freshening of surface waters. The cause, goes the thinking, would be the rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, whose large freshwater flows may weaken ocean “overturning” by reducing the density of cold surface waters (colder, salty water is denser). If cold, salty waters don’t sink in the North Atlantic and flow back southward toward Antarctica at depth, then warm surface waters won’t flow northward to take their place. The result could be a significant change to northern hemisphere climate, as less ocean-borne heat reaches higher latitudes. Read More here