18 November 2015, Science Daily, Sea level rise from Antarctic collapse may be slower than suggested. A new study by scientists in the UK and France has found that Antarctic ice sheet collapse will have serious consequences for sea level rise over the next two hundred years, though not as much as some have suggested. This study, published today in the journal Nature, uses an ice-sheet model to predict the consequences of unstable retreat of the ice, which recent studies suggest has begun in West Antarctica. Scientists, led by Catherine Ritz from Université Grenoble Alpes in France and Tamsin Edwards from The Open University, predict that the contribution is most likely to be 10 cm of sea-level rise this century under a mid to high climate scenario, but is extremely unlikely to be higher than 30 cm. When combined with other contributions, that’s a significant challenge for adapting to future sea level rise. But it’s also far lower than some previous estimates, which were as high as one metre from Antarctica alone. The study’s central estimate raises the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) central prediction of 60 cm global sea-level rise by just a few centimetres under the mid to high scenario they used. But the UK and France team’s method allowed them to assess the likelihood of sea-level rise from substantial parts of the ice sheet collapsing, which the IPCC could not due to a lack of evidence. They predict there is a one in twenty chance that Antarctic collapse could contribute more than 30 cm sea-level rise by the end of the century and more than 72 cm by 2200. This does not rule out larger contributions on longer time scales. Read More here
Yearly Archives: 2015
18 November 2015, The Conversation, The state of emergency could thwart public demonstrations at the Paris climate talks. What impact will the attacks have on the Paris Climate Change Conference scheduled to begin in 12 days? While already complicated, the talks will now take place within a state of emergency that is threatening to limit public participation. Events in Paris continue to unfold at a dizzying pace. But in the coming days we will learn a lot by paying attention to how parties use (and abuse) the language of freedom and liberty. American philosopher Judith Butler underlined this point in a note from Paris written the night after the attacks: “One version of liberty is attacked by the enemy, another version is restricted by the state. The state defends the version of liberty attacked as the very heart of France, and yet suspends freedom of assembly (“the right to demonstrate”) in the midst of its mourning and prepares for an even more thorough militarization of the police.” State of emergency the night of the attacks President François Hollande declared a state of emergency. The legal basis for this declaration derives from Article 16of the French Constitution (1958) and Law Number 55-385 (1955). Hollande’s announcement was only the second time since World War II that a President has exercised this power on French soil. The last occasion was in November 2005 when riots broke out in response to the deaths of two teenage immigrants, Zyed Benna and Bouna Traoré. On that occasion, the emergency lasted until January 4 2006. The current state of emergency took effect after midnight on November 14 and is set to expire after 12 days. However, it is likely that Hollande will successfully extend the emergency period for three months and gain broader security powers. Read More here
18 November 2015, The Conversation, Shrinking Antarctic glaciers could make Adélie penguins unlikely winners of climate change. Penguin numbers exploded in East Antarctica at the end of the last ice age, according to research published today in BMC Evolutionary Biology. Despite their image as cold-loving creatures, the increase in Adélie penguin numbers seems to be closely linked to shrinking glaciers, raising the possibility the these penguins could be winners from current climate change. Adélie penguins are one of only two penguin species that live on the Antarctic continent. Their cousins, emperor penguins, may be the movie stars, but it is the Adélies that are the bigger players in the Southern Ocean. They outnumber emperors by more than ten to one, with a population of over 7.5 million breeding adults and counting. Given the abundance of Adélie penguins and their crucial role in Southern Ocean ecosystems, there has been a great deal of interest in understanding how the species is likely to respond to future climate change. Sensitivity to sea ice Breeding colonies have been monitored for decades to determine the effects of a changing environment on the penguins. A common finding of many of these studies is that Adélies are highly sensitive to sea ice conditions. Unlike emperor penguins, Adélies do not nest on the sea ice, but they must cross it to reach their nests on land. As everyone knows, penguins are not the most efficient walkers, and in years with a lot of sea ice their journeys to and from the ocean to feed their chicks can become lengthy. With a longer wait between meals chicks are less likely to survive. In an extreme case, extensive sea ice at one breeding colony had a devastating impact in 2014, and not a single chick survived. Read More here
17 November, ABC Science, New map of Earth’s groundwater to help estimate when it may run out. Less than 6 per cent of ground water in the upper two kilometres of the Earth’s landmass is renewable within a human lifetime, according to a new map showing the world’s hidden groundwater. “This has never been known before,” said the study’s lead author, Dr Tom Gleeson of the University of Victoria in Canada. “We already know that water levels in lots of aquifers are dropping. We’re using our groundwater resources too fast -faster than they’re being renewed.” Using data and computer models, an international group of hydrologists has produced the first data-driven estimate of the Earth’s total supply of groundwater. “Since we now know how much groundwater is being depleted and how much there is, we will be able to estimate how long until we run out.” The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, estimated a total volume of underground water to be almost 23 million cubic kilometres, of which 0.35 million cubic kilometres is younger than 50 years old. Underground water is found beneath the Earth’s surface and is recharged by rain, snow or water that leaks from the bottom of lakes and rivers. Its age can be a few months to millions of years. It can be found as deep as nine kilometres, according to the United States Geological Survey. “Since we now know how much groundwater is being depleted and how much there is, we will be able to estimate how long until we run out,” Dr Gleeson said. Read More here