10 September 2015, The Conversation, Sure, winter felt chilly, but Australia is setting new heat records at 12 times the rate of cold ones. Spring feels like a welcome relief from an Australian winter that felt very cold and very long. Melbourne has just shivered through its coldest winter in 26 years and Canberra hibernated through more cold nights than any winter since 1997. But while it felt cold, it turns out we’ve just become accustomed to unusually warm conditions. My new study online in Geophysical Research Letters (with my colleague Andrew King) shows that Australia has been losing out on cold temperature records over the past 55 years. We investigated the frequency of new hot and cold temperature records for months, seasons and years, for each state and Australia as a whole, from 1910 to 2014. The results were straightforward. Record-breaking hot temperatures have outnumbered new cold records by a factor of 12 to 1 since the beginning of this century. The cause is also clear: global warming. Yet people’s ability to recognise climate extremes is easily affected by our perceptions. Riding my bike around frosty Canberra this winter felt brutally and unusually cold. But in reality it was only a bit colder than recent “warm” winters. Such misperceptions about climate extremes are common. During the record-breaking spring temperatures in Australia in 2013, Prime Minister Tony Abbott said: “…the thing is that at some point in the future, every record will be broken, but that doesn’t prove anything about climate change. It just proves that the longer the period of time, the more possibility of extreme events.” At first pass, this sounds like common sense. But statistically, it’s wrong. In an unchanging climate, new temperature records actually become less likely to occur with time, because each new record would be harder to beat in the absence of anything driving temperatures in a particular direction. Read More here
Monthly Archives: September 2015
9 September 2015, The Guardian, Pacific leaders voice frustration over Australia’s position on climate change. Kiribati president says any attempt to water down a commitment to curb global warming would be a ‘betrayal’ and that there will be no compromise on target. Tony Abbott is set to receive a frosty reception from some Pacific island leaders in Papua New Guinea amid frustration at Australia’s perceived failure to properly address climate change. The president of Kiribati, Anote Tong, said that Australia may be asked to leave the Pacific Islands Forum, or face a walkout by small island states, if it attempted to water down a commitment to curb global warming. Pacific nations have called for global warming to be limited to 1.5C above a pre-industrial baseline, claiming that the internationally-agreed limit of 2C would devastate their low-lying islands through sea-level rises and extreme weather. Tong said that it would be a “betrayal” if Australia forced any compromise on the 1.5C target at the forum, which is being held in Port Moresby this week. “We expect them as our big brothers, not bad brothers, our big brothers to support us on this one,” he said. “We cannot negotiate this, no matter how much aid. We cannot be bought on this one because it’s about the future. Read more here
9 September 2015, Energy Post, The Urgenda judgment: a “victory” for the climate that is likely to backfire. The Dutch government has decided to appeal the widely publicised “Urgenda” ruling from the district court in The Hague, ordering the Netherlands to step up its climate change actions. According to Lucas Bergkamp, Partner at Hunton & Williams and Emeritus Professor of International Environmental Liability Law at Erasmus University Rotterdam, there are good reasons why we should hope that the court of appeals will overturn the ruling. According to Bergkamp, it sets a dangerous precedent for judicial activism, is inconsistent with European law and will even undermine international climate negotiations. Read More here
8 September 2015, ARENA, Three months on and Nyngan is flying. The largest solar power plant in Australia and the Southern Hemisphere in Nyngan, NSW, is fully operational and has generated 60,000 MWh of renewable energy to date, according to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). Since achieving full generation in June 2015, the plant has been sending 102 MW of solar-generated electricity into the National Electricity Market. ARENA CEO Ivor Frischknecht said the successful beginning of Nyngan’s operations was a significant milestone in the development of Australia’s large-scale solar sector. “AGL’s Solar Project at Nyngan and Broken Hill represents a big investment by the company and also by ARENA,” Mr Frischknecht said. “It’s already achieving one of ARENA’s key aims of increasing the amount of renewable energy in Australia. “And the knowledge gained from its successful launch and ongoing operations will lead to further improvements in technology and reductions in costs for the sector.” The solar plant, a partnership between AGL Energy Limited (AGL) and First Solar, is expected to produce around 230,000 MWh of electricity annually which is sufficient to meet the needs of approximately 33,000 NSW homes. Read More here